By Mackenzie Tatananni

Oklo stock has veered into the red this year following a tremendous run-up over the past 12 months. Fourth-quarter earnings show the company has a way to go in its path toward profitability. So why hasn't Wall Street soured on the stock?

The nuclear start-up made "strong progress on all fronts" in its latest quarter, Citi Research analyst Vikram Bagri contended Wednesday. The analyst maintained a Neutral rating while cutting his price target on the shares to $73.50 from $95.

The new estimate reflects higher projections for capital expenditures and operating expenses in 2026. Oklo said Tuesday that it expects to deploy between $350 million and $450 million in cash for investing activities.

However, Bagri's new price target still suggests shares could rise more than 24% from current levels. Oklo stock was down 2.5% at $59.02 on Wednesday.

While Oklo's continued losses in the fourth quarter were unsurprising, considering the company has yet to generate money from its products, there was one markedly positive development as Oklo secured its first license from the Nuclear Revenue Commission.

The license specifically applies to Atomic Alchemy, a wholly-owned subsidiary dealing in the production of radioactive isotopes. It may not have been the update investors wanted most, seeing as Oklo has yet to secure approval for fast-fission reactors and remains unable to sell power.

Still, the license allows Oklo to introduce a new revenue stream -- undoubtedly a positive for a company that has yet to generate any revenue. Following a $1.5 billion at-the-market offering in January, the company is "very well capitalized," while it expects initial isotope revenue this year, Bagri pointed out.

Speaking to investors on the earnings call Tuesday, CEO Jacob DeWitte noted that 2025 had been a major execution year for Oklo. Changes on the regulatory front were also a boon to the company, he pointed out.

"The policy backdrop has shifted from a light tailwind to a very strong tailwind for the nuclear sector, and Oklo is positioned to move in that environment," DeWitte said.

The company has stood firm on its target for deployment of its first reactor in late 2027 or 2028. Oklo additionally was selected for an Energy Department initiative that aims to have at least three test reactors up and running at national laboratories by July 2026.

Oklo said Tuesday that it had signed an agreement with the department to support the design, construction, and operation of its first reactor at Idaho National Laboratory under the so-called Reactor Pilot Program.

Bagri may be sidelined for now, but his commentary was cautiously upbeat. The analyst noted that Oklo has already sourced fuel for its first nuclear facility, and has sufficient liquidity to move through the regulatory review process without outside capital.

The analyst also highlighted Oklo's agreement with Meta Platforms to develop a 1.2-gigawatt campus in Ohio, which includes a pledge from the hyperscaler to prepay for nuclear power. Oklo will use Meta's funding to secure fuel for its reactors.

Notably, Oklo views the deal as an "anchor" providing a framework for discussions with other customers, Bagri noted. An initial 150 megawatts of power is slated for around 2030.

Despite Oklo's "strong execution" in just the past few months, the analyst isn't changing his rating yet. Bagri noted that the company is looking into multiple ways to raise capital, though a binding power purchase agreement "may still be a year or more out, which could limit project financing."

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Needham analyst Sean Milligan nearly halved his price target on the shares to $73 from $135 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Milligan contended that the lower price target represents a lower valuation multiple and reduced expectations for outer-year deployment. Still, the Buy rating is a resounding endorsement of an early-stage company whose shares have soared over the past year in the absence of revenue.

Many others on the Street are just as enthusiastic. Of 22 firms tracked by FactSet, 14 rate Oklo at Buy or Overweight. Seven others rate it at Hold, and just one at Sell. The stock has an average price target of $101.03.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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March 18, 2026 15:37 ET (19:37 GMT)

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