MW Tesla has 'lots of irons in the fire' - but its stock is unusually calm

By William Gavin

Tesla shares have been less volatile than usual as investors wait to see the early results of Musk's forays into robotaxis and chip making

Tesla has a lot lined up for the future, including production of a planned robotaxi vehicle and a major chip fab.

Tesla's stock has been uncharacteristically calm as the company focuses on a series of plans that could decide its future.

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson noted on Thursday that the implied volatility of Tesla shares $(TSLA)$ over the last 90 days is in the first percentile on a two-year historical basis. In other words, shares aren't seesawing nearly as much as usual.

The stock has long been known to be volatile. Over the last year, it has fallen to as low as $214 a share, and risen as high as $498.

Baird's Ben Kallo, in a note to clients on Thursday. also called out a "lull" in Tesla's stock as the company prepares for what Kallo called a "pivotal" time. Shares have fallen about 7% over the last month, including a 3% drop in intraday action on Thursday.

Tesla has "lots of irons in the fire" that could help shares move higher, Kallo said in a note to clients. He sees Tesla booking $96 billion in capital expenditures through the end of 2030 as it invests in potentially lucrative products and expands its business. That's more than double Tesla's capex across the first half of the decade.

Tesla this month said it would start work on a massive chip-manufacturing plant that analysts have said will easily cost tens of billions of dollars. It's also exploring an expensive solar-manufacturing plant. Earlier this week, the U.S. confirmed Tesla will work with LG Energy Solution (KR:373220) on a $4.3 billion battery-cell factory in Michigan.

Read: Tesla's stock rises as investors embrace ambitious foray into making AI chips

Dutch authorities could approve Tesla's supervised Full Self-Driving $(FSD)$ software as soon as Friday, according to Musk, although an RDW official told MarketWatch that a decision has not yet been made. Permission in the Netherlands could open Tesla up to receiving further approval - and revenue - in the European market.

Next month, Tesla plans to begin making an autonomous vehicle that it says can be sold to the general public and used for taxi services. It may also unveil a much-hyped and long-delayed sports car.

"The stock price is driven by narrative and future possibilities from AI ventures," UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who rates Tesla at sell, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

However, investors have told UBS that the rollout of Tesla's robotaxi network and updates on its humanoid robots have been slower than they expected, Spak added.

Tesla said in January that it expects to expand its ride-hailing network to nine cities by the end of June. It currently offers services in just two cities, of which only one employs some fully-autonomous vehicles. That leaves the company well behind rivals like Google's Waymo and Uber Technologies (UBER).

See: Uber's stock powers higher as Nvidia robotaxi deal helps avert 'doomsday' scenario

Spak also warned that there is "growing sentiment" that the company's robotaxis aren't much different than those of rivals. And these competitors have more recently showed progress. Nvidia (NVDA) this week announced plans to work with several companies on autonomous cars, while Rivian Automotive (RIVN) said Thursday that it would provide Uber with up to 50,000 robotaxis.

Additionally, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration this week upgraded an investigation into Tesla's FSD, which could pave the road for a potential recall. The regulator is investigating how Tesla's "degradation detection system" detects poor visibility conditions, such as fog or harsh sunlight, and warns drivers.

The NHTSA identified at least nine incidents, including one in which a Tesla fatally struck a pedestrian, and found the system didn't detect "common" issues or warn drivers until "immediately" before a crash. It reviewed incidents that showed the company's software "lost track of or never detected a lead vehicle in its path," the regulator said.

A representative for Tesla didn't immediately return a request for comment.

On April 2, Tesla is expected to report sales of 382,000 electric-vehicles for the first quarter of 2026, up from 337,000 a year earlier, according to the FactSet consensus. Both Baird and UBS lowered their estimates on Thursday, forecasting deliveries of almost 356,000 units and 345,000 units, respectively.

"Do deliveries even matter? For the stock price? Probably not, at least not like it used to," Spak wrote. "While we expect sentiment will continue to overwhelmingly drive the stock (certainly more than auto deliveries), it is (primarily) the auto business that helps fund Tesla's cash flow and hence their investment for growth."

See: Tesla investors may have to wait even longer for a rocket-powered sports car

-William Gavin

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March 19, 2026 15:29 ET (19:29 GMT)

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