By Connor Hart

Academy Sports & Outdoors said discretionary spending will likely remain muted this year as macroeconomic pressures persist.

The sporting-goods retailer on Tuesday guided for comparable sales, or those from stores and digital channels open for at least a year, to be in the range of down 1% to up 2% in 2026. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected same-store sales to increase 1.4% for the year.

The low end of the range assumes a continually muted backdrop for discretionary consumer spending, Chief Executive Steve Lawrence said on a call with analysts.

"Our belief is that most of the macroeconomic pressures consumers faced in the back half of 2025 will carry into the first half of 2026," he said. "In particular, inflationary pressures on goods sourced outside of the U.S. should continue."

The outlook overshadowed higher fiscal fourth-quarter sales and sent shares lower. The stock fell 11%, to $50.39, on pace for its largest percent decrease in nearly a year. Despite the pullback, shares are up 8.8% over the past year.

Still, Lawrence said several tailwinds could help offset macroeconomic pressure. For starters, the company expects consumers to see higher income-tax refunds this year, which has historically boosted sales.

At the same time, FIFA World Cup matches throughout the U.S. should increase tourism and foot traffic, potentially providing a sales lift for licensed merchandise and tailgating goods, Lawrence said. And Academy Sports expects strong sales of patriotic merchandise this summer around the nation's 250th anniversary.

Academy Sports forecast net sales to grow 2% to 5% this year, to between $6.18 billion and $6.36 billion. Analysts are looking for sales of $6.47 billion. The company projected earnings of $5.65 to $6.15 a share, or $6.10 to $6.60 a share on an adjusted basis. Wall Street modeled earnings of $6.30 a share and adjusted earnings of $6.46 a share.

For its quarter ended Jan. 31, the company posted a profit of $133.7 million, or $1.98 a share, roughly flat from a year earlier, when the company posted a profit of $133.6 million, or $1.89 a share. Adjusted earnings of $1.97 a share missed analyst expectations for $2.05 a share.

Sales rose 2.5% to $1.72 billion, slightly below the $1.76 billion that Wall Street modeled. Comparable sales, or those from stores and digital channels open for at least a year, declined 1.6%. Analysts had expected same-store sales to ebb 0.1%.

Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 17, 2026 13:35 ET (17:35 GMT)

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