Al Root

Seeing America's expansive landscape in a recreational vehicle has been part of America's driving ethos for generations. It might be a tough year to try it out.

RV stocks, including Winnebago, Thor Industries, LCI Industries, and Patrick Industries, have had a tough go since the end of the postpandemic buying boom, beset by high interest rates that make financing a $100,000-plus purchase harder and by high dealer inventories. Since the end of 2022, when the industry's earnings peaked, shares of the four are down an average of 3%, trailing the S&P 500 by roughly 45 percentage points.

This year was supposed to be better, with the four stocks up an average of 4% through February. Dealer inventories were in better shape, according to Benchmark analyst Michael Albanese. What's more, rates were easing, as were acute tariff pressures.

"Our meetings at the Florida RV SuperShow [in January] supported some optimism that lower interest rates, less tariff noise, and larger tax refunds could create a bullish consumer narrative in 2026," wrote Baird analyst Craig Kennison earlier this year. "Our contacts also took a guarded tone, having learned from the prolonged down-cycle."

Then came the Iran conflict. Since the onset of the bombings, the four stocks are down an average of 10%, trailing the S&P 500 by about 8 percentage points.

The reason isn't hard to suss out: $100 a barrel oil is hard on the consumer and makes filling up an RV gas tank, which can hold 100 gallons of fuel, a daunting prospect.

"The Street's confidence in rate cuts in [has] waned given the war in Iran and subsequent rising oil prices, and the group continues to see volatility attached to macro expectations," wrote Albanese in a Monday report.

"After a good run, many RV stocks have pulled back recently on weaker demand signals and growing anxiety surrounding the conflict with Iran," added Kennison in a March report. "For now, we expect the group to trade inversely with oil prices, which have the potential to make or break this season."

Summer is a big selling season for RVs. The Iran conflict couldn't have come at a worse time. Of course, the end of the conflict and lower oil prices are a catalyst investors can watch for.

Kennison, for his part, rates all four stocks Hold. Albanese rates Winnebago, LCI, and Patrick stocks Buy.

Of the four, Patrick is the most popular, with 78% of analysts covering the company rating the shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 ranges between 55% and 60%.

The average Buy-rating ratio for Winnebago is 53%. The Buy-rating ratios for LCI and Thor are below 30%.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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March 17, 2026 12:18 ET (16:18 GMT)

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