MW Oil climbs after Trump issues Iran 48-hour ultimatum

By Nora Redmond

President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would strike Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Oil prices have risen on Monday as the war in Iran enters its fourth day.

West Texas Intermediate futures (CL.1) advanced 1.5% to $99.69 a barrel, while Brent crude contracts (BRN00) (BRNK26) climbed just over 1% to $113.59 a barrel.

The move comes after President Donald Trump threatened more attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure in a post on Truth Social. The speaker of Iran's parliament warned of retaliatory strikes across the region in response.

But the move also came as the U.S. Treasury gave a one-month waiver to sanctions on Iranian oil, as it did earlier with Russian oil.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note on Monday that oil's reaction suggests: "1) markets are no longer pricing a quick resolution to the conflict, 2) the US is taking unusual steps such as easing constraints on some Iranian and Russian oil flows, and 3) higher oil prices are feeding into inflation expectations, pushing central bank bets in a more hawkish direction and raising stagflation risks."

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its price forecast for oil, expecting Brent crude to reach an average of $85 a barrel, up from $77, for the year and West Texas Intermediate to get up to $79 a barrel, compared to a previous estimate of $72.

Analysts led by Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, wrote in a note on Sunday that the change was in outlooks was based on the assumption that exports from the strait remain at 5% of normal levels for a six-week period and then begin a gradual one-month recovery.

They added that a recognition of the risks from the highly concentrated production is likely to lead to more stockpiling and higher long-dated prices.

-Nora Redmond

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March 23, 2026 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)

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