Venture Global (VG) looks to be the US exporter with the most upside to the rising global prices of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, due to the Middle East conflict, Morgan Stanley said in a Monday note.

The company has about 30% of its 2026 cargo sales open to the market, and roughly 40% average unsold for 2026 to 2029, Morgan Stanley analysts said. They forecast that every $1 per million British thermal units margin gain on uncontracted volumes boosts 2026 Venture Global's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization by $575 million to $625 million.

An initial short-term LNG plant outage in the Middle East has worsened into a supply disruption that could last for years, tightening 2026 volumes and easing expected oversupply in 2027 to 2028, the analysts said. Even if the Middle East conflict resolves soon, replenishing gas supplies due to a large supply loss will create upside price risks for LNG, the analysts added.

The recent developments, along with the projected profitability from the bolt-on expansions at the Plaquemines LNG and CP2 projects, align the analysts' base case price target with their prior bull case, according to the note.

Morgan Stanley double upgraded the company's stock rating to overweight from underweight and raised the price target to $22 from $8.

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