This Oil Shock Is 7× Worse Than 2022 Crisis; Expect Covid-Scale Volatility

Benzinga_recent_news

9小时前

Remember the empty streets, boarded up stores, and bare shelves of 2020? Something like that appears highly likely, should there not be any major positive developments in the Middle East (which looks ...

网页链接

免责声明：投资有风险，本文并非投资建议，以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请，作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考，不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证，投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

{"basename":"/hans","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - 老虎证券","title":"老虎证券全球投资理财平台| 一站式投资美股新股港股A股","description":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","keywords":"老虎证券,老虎证券开户,老虎券商,老虎证券官网,老虎证券app,tigertrade老虎证券,股票,炒股,新加坡股票交易平台,投资,投资理财","social":{"ogDescription":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/2621890820"},"companyName":"老虎证券"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2621890820\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2621890820?lang=zh_CN&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/23/Gav-Blaxberg.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-03-24 03:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2621890820","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"This Oil Shock Is 7× Worse Than 2022 Crisis; Expect Covid-Scale Volatility","media":"Benzinga_recent_news","content":"<div>\n<p>Remember the empty streets, boarded up stores, and bare shelves of 2020? Something like that appears highly likely, should there not be any major positive developments in the Middle East (which looks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/03/51417862/this-oil-shock-is-7x-worse-than-2022-crisis-expect-covid-scale-volatility\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Oil Shock Is 7× Worse Than 2022 Crisis; Expect Covid-Scale Volatility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Oil Shock Is 7× Worse Than 2022 Crisis; Expect Covid-Scale Volatility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-24 03:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/03/51417862/this-oil-shock-is-7x-worse-than-2022-crisis-expect-covid-scale-volatility><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Remember the empty streets, boarded up stores, and bare shelves of 2020? Something like that appears highly likely, should there not be any major positive developments in the Middle East (which looks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/03/51417862/this-oil-shock-is-7x-worse-than-2022-crisis-expect-covid-scale-volatility\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/03/51417862/this-oil-shock-is-7x-worse-than-2022-crisis-expect-covid-scale-volatility","article_id":"2621890820","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/23/Gav-Blaxberg.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/26/03/51417862/this-oil-shock-is-7x-worse-than-2022-crisis-expect-covid-scale-volatility","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621890820","pubTimestamp":1774293780,"columns":[{"name":"原油","id":4,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"This is the worst energy crisis in modern history. Another oil shock is here, and it's 7× worse than the 2022 crisis.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","USO":"美国原油ETF","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF"},"translate_title":"这次石油危机比2022年危机严重7倍；预计新冠疫情规模的波动","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XLE":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"XOP":0.9},"content_text":"Remember the empty streets, boarded up stores, and bare shelves of 2020? Something like that appears highly likely, should there not be any major positive developments in the Middle East (which looks quite unlikely).\nLuckily, rather than guessing, we can look at hard data and actual numbers:During the 2nd quarter of 2020, the global economy came to a screeching halt. Freeways empty, shipping halted, bare shelves, closed up shops and ‘non-essential worker' lockdowns.\nAccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Q2 2020 GDP print, the US economy shrank by 32%, just in Q2 alone. A third of the US economy- gone.\nBecause COVID was such a rapid & unexpected shock, there was a huge imbalance between the supply of oil and the demand for it.\nThis is the sort of economic collapse that was required to destroy the demand for oil. All in all, during Q2 of 2020 (height of the COVID lockdowns), demand for oil fell by 23 million barrels per day (‘bpd').\nGiven that the clearing mechanism for such an imbalance between supply and demand is price, oil prices famously had to go to -$40 to clear the market.\nNegative $40 per barrel. That was what was required to clear the 23 million bpd loss of demand due to the global economy screeching to a halt.\nThe Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products (according to the IEA), is effectively closed. There is no physical blockade (though there may be mines)- but the strait is effectively closed with traffic down 97% and 20 million barrels of oil taken offline.\n20 million barrels of oil supply were taken offline, just from this one chokepoint. Remember, supply = demand (with prices as the clearing mechanism).\nBut we didn't just see a supply reduction from the Strait- you need to store oil somewhere. This is called \"inventories.\"\nDue to the outbound flow being stopped, refineries started filling inventories. When the tanks fill up, they must stop producing.\n\"Shut-ins\"= 8 million barrels per day.This will take months/years to bring back.\nNot only that, but due to attacks on refineries (from both parties), we're seeing some energy output being taken offline for years.\nFor example, with just two cheap drones, Iran took 3.5% of global Natural Gas production offline… for FIVE YEARS with their attack on the Qatari refinery.\nThis current shock is almost identical magnitude as 2020, but reversed. Instead of a -23mln bpd negative demand shock, we're talking about a -20mln bpd supply shock.\nBut remember, you can print money to stimulate demand (and that's exactly what we did). But you can’t print oil. Supply must equal demand.\nWe can’t print more energy, unlike 2020, when we could print $5 trillion to spur demand\nThis energy is now gone and so too the economic activity predicted on it.\nIf 20 million barrels per day of supply disappear, something has to give.\nEither:A) The Strait reopens, orB) Global oil demand (i.e. economic activity) falls by roughly 20 mb/dC) Find more oil somewhere\nThe only way demand would fall by 20 mb/d is through a brutal global economic contraction- on the scale of the 2020 COVID lockdowns.\nThe mechanism is different: prices will spike instead of go negative, but the scale of pain required is roughly comparable-Demand (economic activity) must be destroyed, and the only way to do that is much higher prices\nRemember, the price elasticity of demand (\"PED\") for oil is very low, about 0.1. If oil goes up $10 a barrel, people still need to go to work, get groceries, etc. They don't stop their economic activity (demand), without much higher prices.\nThis is, by far, the single most catastrophic energy crisis in history and this is why the IEA announced the release of 400mb, but there's a problem:\nFlow rate- only about 1.2 million barrels per day can be released from the stockpiles [IEA], and, it's time-limited to just a couple months.\nSo there's a 1.2 mb/d offset there, but what else can we do?\nA Saudi Arabian pipeline can transit oil to Yanbu in the Red Sea, but the flow can only be increased by about 3 million bpd.\nProblems:\nThe other offset is a UAE pipeline into the \"good\" side of the Strait of Hormuz, ending in Fujairah, but this can only be increased by just 0.5 million bpd.\nThe problem is that Iran has already attacked the terminal in Fujairah and has already taken their operations offline for days. They have proven they have the ability and capacity to do it again.\nSo far, we're at +4.7 million bpd of offset (to the initial -20 million bpd shock), under the best of circumstances. However, repeated strikes on Yanbu and Fujairah put 3.5 mb/d under serious question.\nEven \"oil on water\", another potential offset, is being tapped at record speed. It’s already down from ~140 million \"floating barrels\" to ~78 million barrels.\n1.8 million bpd (and almost gone). Other than the fact that these \"floating barrels\" are almost depleted, we've also seen several strikes on tankers in the Mediterranean and Gulf.\nSo, using the absolutely most optimistic case: we've added +6.5 million bpd to offset the historic -20 million bpd shock.\nSo an ‘improvement’ from -20mb/d to 13.5mb/d shock\nBut:Floating oil = almost goneSPR = only lasts monthsKSA/UAE diversion = repeatedly attacked/offline (half of that 6.5mb)\nEven under the most optimistic circumstances, we’re talking about a negative supply shock at least 7x worse than the 2022 Russia/Ukraine war.\nThis war doesn't just mean higher gas prices-\nIt means economic activity must collapse by a LOT.\nAnd that happens through MUCH higher prices. $200 Brent oil appears to be a conservative estimate without a dramatic improvement, based on PED of oil (-0.1) and the amount of supply being disrupted.\nWe should expect volatility on the scale of COVID, as markets wake up to these facts.\nThanks for reading! Catch you in the next one! WANT MORE WOLF? Follow us on YouTube\nBenzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}