By Nate Wolf

The debate over whether and how significantly artificial intelligence will disrupt the software industry likely won't be settled for years, but investors at least seemed more optimistic about the sector on Thursday.

Software stocks were on the rise in midday trading, while hardware stocks with deep exposure to AI data centers fell sharply. It wasn't immediately clear what drove the rotation on a day when traders seemed mostly concerned with how long the Iran war would continue.

"TECH* and Financials have rotated back into favor at the expense of Industrials, Materials, Staples and Health Care," wrote Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Global.

Among the notable software risers, Palo Alto Networks jumped 3.5%, Intuit rose 3.4%, and ADP was up 2.7%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector exchange-traded fund, which is down 24% this year, was up 0.5% on a day when the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell.

Hardware names, meanwhile, dominated the list of the biggest large-cap fallers. Sandisk, Lam Research, and Ciena were all down at least 7%.

Concerns about AI tools reducing the demand for enterprise software solutions are real, but the recent message from Wall Street and corporate executives is that investors need to get choosier about their stock picks.

"Application software companies with seat-based pricing models are under AI threat, but not every company is created equal, in our view," wrote KeyBanc analyst Jason Celino in a research note Wednesday.

The primary risk is that AI will improve user efficiency and reduce the need for enterprise customers to add seats or buy add-ons. Seat growth or seat add-ons likely represents anywhere from 50% to 75% of net new revenue expansion for the software companies in Celino's coverage.

But some companies, particularly vertically-integrated ones, price software based on the underlying asset or activity, which should help insulate them from AI disintermediation.

Celino points to Samsara, which prices based on a customers' operating assets like trucks and school buses, and Synopsys, which prices on overall chip-design activity, as examples positioned to "maintain pricing premiums."

Others around the industry think equities markets are overreacting to the threat of AI, which hasn't yet slashed software earnings.

"We believe [the market] is overcorrecting, re-pricing on AI disruption fears that aren't fully visible in actual software business performance, " Holden Spaht, managing director at software-focused private-equity firm Thoma Bravo, wrote in a LinkedIn post Wednesday. "The moment creates a major buying opportunity for those disciplined enough to act on it."

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com

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March 26, 2026 11:43 ET (15:43 GMT)

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