By Kit Norton

While coal stocks have broadly advanced since the start of the U.S. and Israel-led war with Iran, Peabody Energy shares sank Monday after the coal pure play announced that first-quarter shipment volumes from a mine will be lower than previously expected.

The leading global supplier of coal reported in regulatory filings Monday that "based on recent events" around mine commissioning challenges, it forecasts shipments of 250,00 tons from its Centurion mine in Australia compared with prior forecasts of around 700,000 tons.

Peabody Energy kept its full-year 2026 shipment targets for metallurgical coal, a critical component in blast-furnace steel production, unchanged at 10.3 million tons to 11.3 million tons.

The stock, which had risen 25% since the start of the war entering into Monday, sank 11% to $35.17. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1% on Monday.

Despite the day's steep decline, Peabody Energy stock is still on pace to finish March with a 12% gain. During the month, it hit a high of $41.14, the highest trading level since September 2018, which came soon after it exited bankruptcy in 2017.

Jefferies analysts Christopher LaFemina and Alexander Richard on Monday lowered their price target on Peabody Energy to $43 from $44 but kept a Buy rating on the stock.

The analysts wrote that while Peabody Energy maintained guidance for full-year shipments, it now sees that prediction "at risk."

"High seaborne thermal coal prices will help offset the impact of this ramp up delay, but this is still likely to be an overhang on BTU shares until it is fully resolved," they wrote.

The firm added that a successful ramp of Centurion is a "key component of the Peabody investment case." The mine is expected to add significant low-cost premium low-volatile, or PLV, metallurgical coal tons to the company's offerings.

"While today's news may be disappointing, we still believe Centurion will be a driver of substantial free cash flow and earnings growth for Peabody over the medium/longer term," Jefferies analysts wrote.

In recent weeks, coal companies that produce thermal coal, which is used for power generation, have received a boost as investors reprice demand for coal as a heating source because oil and natural gas prices are rising in response to war in Iran.

Restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz has sent crude prices above $100 a barrel with natural gas futures also climbing higher. The closing of liquefied natural gas production in Qatar, the world's third largest LNG exporter, have also hit global supplies.

Newcastle coal futures settled Monday at $144.25 a ton, its highest close since Nov. 4, 2024, and are now up 23.4% in March, according to according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Fellow coal stocks Core Natural Resources, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, and Warrior Met Coal have also scored impressive runs since the beginning of the Middle East conflict.

Entering Monday, Core Natural Resources had gained 38% since the war began while Warrior Met Coal jumped 19%. Alpha Metallurgical Resources was up 9.4% in the time frame.

All three coal stocks declined Monday along with Peabody Energy.

Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com

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March 30, 2026 15:45 ET (19:45 GMT)

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