By Anita Hamilton

The promise of a reopened Strait of Hormuz is facing the reality of no real change at all. On Friday, just two ships passed through the narrow waterway, which has seen traffic collapse, throttling shipments of everything from wheat and rice to oil and gas. That's compared to more than 100 in a typical day before the Iran war began.

"While some vessel movement has resumed, traffic remains very limited," ship-tracking firm Kpler wrote Friday. Many of the ships currently moving through the 104-mile-long passageway are so-called " shadow fleet" vessels. That means they mask their identity by flying different flags, turn off their tracking systems to avoid detection, and are unlikely to be fully insured.

The situation will likely remain the same for now. "Safe transit capacity is expected to remain constrained to a maximum of 10--15 passages a day if the ceasefire holds, without consideration of tolls applied," the ship-tracking service added.

From tolls as steep as $2 million per ship to exorbitant insurance rates for the risky voyage, many ship operators aren't willing to traverse the strait even if technically it's open.

There's also the broader concern that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran may not last. Announced Tuesday night, the deal has already been strained by Israel's attacks on Lebanon. But for now, planned talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan on Saturday morning are set to proceed.

So how long will it take for shipping to resume to pre-war levels in the strait? "I think we expect it to be between six and eight weeks for the traffic to pick up again," Ines Nastali, S&P Global Market Intelligence's senior supply chain analyst, told Barron's. "That's when the shipping companies feel more comfortable."

When it comes to oil and gas, infrastructure damage has also limited the availability of products to transport. For example, a major attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facilities is expected to take months to repair.

Lastly, there is the challenge of getting voyages scheduled again. "Shipping operations are planned in advance," says S&P Global's Nastali. "With a car, you're super flexible. In shipping, you can't do that especially with this very narrow route that you go through."

And that, in turn, means elevated oil and gas prices for the foreseeable future. Oil prices settled between $95 and $97 a barrel Friday. Meanwhile prices at the pump are about 60 cents higher than they were a month ago, according to AAA, at $4.15 a gallon.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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April 10, 2026 16:28 ET (20:28 GMT)

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