By Sune Engel Rasmussen

According to one estimate, a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will cost Iran approximately $435 million a day, including $276 million in lost exports, mostly of crude oil and petrochemicals. Miad Maleki, analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies research group, based his estimate on Iran exporting 1.5 million barrels of oil a day at a wartime price of about $87 a barrel, and assumed more than 90% of the oil transits through Kharg Island, inside the Persian Gulf.

Other analysts point out that Iran's potential loss depends on several unknown factors, including how impenetrable the U.S.' blockade turns out to be, and to what extent Iran will be able to reroute oil exports through the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. The short-term damage will also be offset by oil Iran already has on the water. As of late March, Iran had an estimated 154 million barrels floating outside the blockage-affected Gulf, according to Kpler.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 13, 2026 13:40 ET (17:40 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.