MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone industrial production; trading updates for ASML, Hermes, Barratt Redrow

Opening Call:

European stock futures were mixed, after Asia stocks rose. U.S. Treasurys were steady, the dollar strengthened. Gold fell and oil was mixed.

Equities:

European stock futures were mixed after Asia markets broadly rose. Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 was back near its all-time high as investors appeared content to look past the fact that the Strait of Hormuz was still mostly closed.

Market strategists said that escape velocity has likely been reached.

Unless oil prices climb to a new peak, the S&P 500 index probably won't retest its March lows, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

"The S&P 500 actually bottomed five trading days before oil's peak, on March 30th, suggesting that equities were looking through a temporary supply disruption premium," Colas said. "That turned out to be a prescient move, as oil prices have since declined."

Forex:

The U.S. dollar index strengthened, as the greenback's positive correlation to oil prices could turn negative if the European Central Bank and Bank of England continue to worry about higher inflation more than the Federal Reserve, said Macquarie strategists.

"There is a lot of validity to the idea that energy-price pass-through will be greater in Europe and the U.K. as a result of continuing blockages in the Strait of Hormuz," they said.

The Fed is more balanced between its two mandates of price stability and maximum employment while the BOE and ECB suggest they are facing more one-sided inflationary pressures that are harder to look through, they said.

Bonds:

Treasury yields were flat after falling to their lowest levels in nearly a month as President Trump's Iran blockade goes on while U.S. indicators showed improvement.

Wholesale inflation cooled down in March, while major banks reported the American consumer remained resilient in the past quarter.

In a WSJ consensus, the Empire State manufacturing index is expected to print a negative 0.5 in April, following March's negative 0.2.

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Energy:

Oil futures were mixed, as the IEA forecast a 2026 decline in world oil consumption in its latest monthly report.

It said that demand destruction will likely pick up as supplies continue to tighten and higher crude prices persist, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

Demand destruction is among the many deleterious consequences of oil near $100 a barrel, said Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James.

In developed economies, this mainly manifests as canceled travel plans, he said in emailed commentary. But in some of Asia's emerging markets, the effects may be far more severe, potentially including fuel rationing.

"The longer oil prices stay high, the more demand destruction will mount, " Molchanov said.

Metals:

Gold edged lower on a possible technical correction after front-month Comex gold futures rose 1.7% overnight.

The previous trading session's gains came as positive diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran helped fuel hopes of a resolution to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Naga's Frank Walbaum said.

This weighed on oil prices, easing inflation concerns, the market analyst says. "Looking ahead, gold's direction will depend on the evolution of geopolitical negotiations," the analyst added.

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Copper rose. The prospect of U.S.-Iran peace talks has boosted market sentiment and broadened risk appetite among traders, propelling the metal to a one-month high, ANZ Research analysts said.

ANZ also attributed the gains to encouraging commodity trade data out of China, with copper ore and concentrate imports rising almost 7% on year.

"This indicates strong demand from domestic smelters despite unfavorable treatment charges," ANZ added.

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Iron ore prices rose amid higher demand. Chinese steel mills were in active production as end-user consumption is rebounding, said Baocheng Futures.

Given the high supply and inventory levels, fundamentals of the iron ore market were operating with a weak but stable trend, they said, adding that room for incremental improvement in prices were limited.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Iran Ports Are Quiet As Strait Blockade Holds Up

The blockade of Iranian ports on the Strait of Hormuz held up in its first 24 hours, the U.S. military said Tuesday, and the top diplomat at the United Nations indicated U.S.-Iran peace talks are likely to resume.

On another front in the Middle East, Israel and Lebanon said they have agreed to launch direct negotiations for a comprehensive peace deal, following rare, face-to-face talks in Washington, D.C.

Europe Drafts Postwar Plan to Free Up Hormuz Without U.S.

LONDON-European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn't include the "belligerent" parties, meaning the U.S., Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn't be under American command.

Europe Is Accelerating a NATO Fallback Plan in Case Trump Pulls Out

A fallback plan to ensure Europe can defend itself using NATO's existing military structures if the U.S. departs is gaining traction after getting buy-in from Germany, a long-term opponent of a go-it-alone approach.

The officials working on the plans, which some officials are referring to as "European NATO," are seeking to get more Europeans into the alliance's command-and-control roles and supplement U.S. military assets with their own.

Elon Musk's xAI Sued by NAACP Over Memphis Data Center

The NAACP sued Elon Musk's xAI Tuesday, alleging the company's efforts to power its data centers in Tennessee and Mississippi are creating a health risk for local residents.

Musk's artificial intelligence company and its subsidiary MZX Tech are illegally operating gas turbines without an air permit at a data center in Southaven, Miss., in violation of the Clean Air Act, the lawsuit said.

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Expected Major Events for Wednesday

06:00/ROM: Feb Industrial production

06:00/NOR: Mar External trade in goods

06:45/FRA: Mar CPI

07:00/SVK: Mar CPI

07:00/SVK: Mar Core & net inflation development

08:00/POL: Feb Merchandise trade

08:00/POL: Mar CPI

09:00/GRE: Mar CPI

09:00/EU: Feb Industrial Production

10:00/IRL: Feb Goods Exports and Imports

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 15, 2026 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)

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