MW Jury finds that Live Nation is an illegal monopoly, but a breakup with Ticketmaster is unlikely, analysts say

By Bill Peters

Some analysts say the most likely outcome for Live Nation would be more damages and penalties. Shares of the concert-ticketing giant rose on Thursday after falling a day earlier.

After a jury on Wednesday found that Ticketmaster owner Live Nation was an illegal monopoly, fans, smaller venues and artist groups expressed hope for a breakup of the concert-ticketing giant. But analysts said such a split probably wouldn't happen.

Analysts made that assessment as Live Nation $(LYV)$ takes steps to contest the jury's findings, and as U.S. states prepare to propose changes to the company's business, following years of allegations that it was gouging concertgoers, stifling competition and strong-arming venues into working with it.

The Justice Department under the Biden administration, along with numerous state attorneys general, first sued Live Nation in 2024, seeking a breakup. The agency reached a settlement agreement with Live Nation last month. But numerous states pursued the case, and they could still ask for the company to divest Ticketmaster.

"An actual breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster still appears quite unlikely especially after the DOJ settlement," Benchmark analyst Matthew Harrigan said in a research note on Thursday.

That settlement creates a $280 million fund for states seeking damages. Live Nation, under that agreement, will scrap exclusive booking agreements with U.S. amphitheaters, and the company said its amphitheaters would give promoters flexibility on where to distribute up to half their tickets and restrict ticketing service fees to 15%. Live Nation will also allow venues to sell some tickets on other platforms.

Some industry observers criticized the deal at the time, saying it didn't do enough to protect smaller venues or fans. Others said it didn't address the secondary ticketing market, where prices can run higher. Live Nation is believed to control at least 80% of the ticketing for major concert venues.

Shares of Live Nation were up 2.9% on Thursday, recovering from a 6.3% drop on Wednesday, as investors grew more upbeat on the company's fate.

Live Nation, in a statement on Wednesday said it expects to see proposed remedies from the states in the weeks ahead. The court will make a call on any changes or compensation after that.

But Capital Alpha Partners analyst Robert Kaminski, in a note on Thursday, said that based on antitrust cases related to Alphabet's Google $(GOOGL)$, remedies in the case could take around a year.

"We see the most likely outcome being an increase in Live Nation's allocation for damages and penalties from the $280 million settlement fund to a figure approaching its $450 million post-trial estimate," Kaminski said in a note. "Other behavioral remedies are possible, but we do not expect a Ticketmaster divestiture."

The jury in a federal court in Manhattan on Wednesday found that Live Nation monopolized ticketing for big concert venues and amphitheaters. Live Nation has argued that it still faces aggressive competition, and that artists play a role in setting ticket prices.

The jury also found that Live Nation overcharged fans by $1.72 per concert ticket. The states are seeking $700 million in damages, TD Cowen analysts said.

Live Nation, in its statement on Wednesday, argued the award of $1.72 per ticket applied to around 20% of total tickets, and only in certain states over the past five years. Based on that calculation, it said, it believed damages would be below $150 million.

"The jury's verdict is not the last word on this matter," Live Nation said. "Pending motions will determine whether the liability and damages rulings stand."

-Bill Peters

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April 16, 2026 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT)

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