By Mackenzie Tatananni

Shares of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals have soared 460% over the past year, widely outpacing the broader market. Those gains could continue if a final handful of data points fall into place.

Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Ulz is eagerly awaiting the release of Phase 3 study data in the third quarter, which he expects to "unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity that remains underappreciated."

The vote of confidence came as Ulz upgraded Arrowhead stock to Overweight from Equal-weight on Tuesday with a $100 price target, up from $78. Shares advanced 5% to $72.72 on Tuesday.

That commentary may seem ovrly upbeat, but Morgan Stanley isn't alone in singing Arrowhead's praises. It's among the 10 firms tracked by FactSet that rate the stock at Buy or the equivalent. Just two -- Leerink Partners and Bernstein Research -- rate it at Hold.

The bullish thesis hinges on upcoming data from late-stage studies evaluating the efficacy of plozasiran in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG). The disease is characterized by abnormally high levels of a type of fat in the blood, which increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and related conditions.

If the data are positive, this will serve as "an important catalyst for the company," Ulz noted. Based on prior data and a similar study with a comparable patient population, "we expect positive results," the analyst added.

Originally founded before the turn of the 21st century, Arrowhead has cultivated a reputation through deals with established drugmakers. The company shifted its focus to genetic medicine in 2011 through the purchase of Roche's RNA interference business, and further solidified its lead in 2015 when it acquired RNAi assets from Novartis.

The company was formerly a partner of Johnson & Johnson's Janssen unit, a relationship that lasted until 2013, when Janssen shrunk its infectious disease and vaccine portfolios. However, Johnson & Johnson kept a stake in the smaller drugmaker until the fourth quarter, as Barron's previously reported, when it sold all remaining shares.

In late 2024, Arrowhead submitted its first New Drug Application for plozasiran, marking the start of a transition from a research-focused biotech to a commercial-stage company.

Arrowhead faces competition from Ionis Pharmaceuticals in the market for SHTG, with Ulz noting that its rival "has set the price." Although Ionis' olezarsen is currently only approved in patients with familial chylomicronemia syndrome, it has received Breakthrough Therapy designation and its supplemental application is on an accelerated review track, with a target completion date of June 30.

This story may be one of direct market competition, but Ulz sees tremendous potential for the broad use of plozasiran, particularly among patients at high risk of pancreatitis. The analyst is targeting peak sales of $3.2 billion, up from $1.7 billion previously.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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April 21, 2026 10:04 ET (14:04 GMT)

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