OpenAI Is Missing Revenue Targets -- and an IPO Is Suddenly No Sure Thing -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones
04/28

By Martin Baccardax

The circular world of artificial intelligence investment -- and the beating heart of OpenAI's $1.4 trillion in spending commitments -- was called into question on Tuesday ahead of a series of big tech earnings and renewed capex ambitions that continue to form the most important plank of the market's record-setting April run.

The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI, the maker of the ChatGPT chatbot and the firm responsible for firing the starting pistol on the AI revolution in November of 2022, is missing its own revenue targets, falling short of user benchmarks, and is worried about meeting its future spending contracts if sales aren't able to expand at a quicker pace.

The paper reported that finance chief Sarah Friar has expressed concerns for the revenue misses to colleagues and has issued company-wide edicts to keep a lid on costs and put more discipline into the $852 billion business.

Friar has expressed reservations about OpenAI's plans to go public, slated for the end of this year, and told company executives board directors that the group may not be ready to meet the reporting standards demanded of a public company, the paper reported.

The report comes just hours after OpenAI restructured its relationship with Microsoft, the tech giant which backed Sam Altman and the group in 2019, giving it more autonomy over how it sells it cloud-based products and opening the door to futures agreements with rivals such as Amazon.

Microsoft, however, will receive a share of OpenAI's revenue through 2030, regardless of the progress Altman's group makes in developing artificial general intelligence in the meantime.

"From a headline perspective, the loss of OpenAI exclusivity appears negative for Microsoft as it suggests less control over the intellectual property of the models while permitting OpenAI to work with other hyperscales like Amazon, Google, or Oracle," said Benchmark analyst Yi Fu Lee. "We acknowledge this is what Microsoft is giving up; however, the company is gaining improved visibility on the earnings potential, margin/profit clarity, and substantially lower tail risk on any future OpenAI governance change surprises."

OpenAI's revenue projections could certainly qualify as a surprise, as well. The Journal reported that the group had missed an internal goal of gaining 1 billion users a week for its ChatGPT chatbot, and still hasn't updated investors on meeting that milestone.

Monthly revenue targets this year have also been missed, according to the Journal, as rivals such as Anthropic gain broader market share.

The timing of the Journal report could be crucial for markets heading into the teeth of the first quarter reporting season, with updates expected from several key hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms, over the the next two days.

Microsoft, which owns a 27.5% stake in OpenAI, has invested more than $13 billion into the group over the past seven years. OpenAI, in turn, as unveiled plans to buy $250 billion worth of cloud capacity from Microsoft.

Nvidia has also planned to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, which in turn has vowed to use the chipmaker's products in its data centers. Amazon, as well, has unveiled plans to invest $50 billion in OpenAI, with $15 billion up front and $35 billion expected over the coming months.

Microsoft, which reports after the close of trading on Wednesday, was down 1% in premarket trading at $420.49 each, while Amazon fell 1.34% to $257.55. Meta was off 1% at $672.20, while Google parent Alphabet slipped 0.7% to $346.25.

Oracle meanwhile, slumped 6.6% to $161.60, a move that would extend its six-month decline to around 42%. Broadcom shares, meanwhile, fell 4.6% to $399.

All told, the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 1.4% in premarket trading after hitting a fresh all-time high of 24,887.10 during Monday's session.

The circular world of artificial intelligence investment -- and the beating heart of OpenAI's $1.4 trillion in spending commitments -- was called into question on Tuesday ahead of a series of big tech earnings and renewed capex ambitions that continue to form the most important plank of the market's record-setting April run.

The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI, the maker of the ChatGPT chatbot and the firm responsible for firing the starting pistol on the AI revolution in November of 2022, is missing its own revenue targets, falling short of user benchmarks, and is worried about meeting its future spending contracts if sales aren't able to expand at a quicker pace.

The paper reported that finance chief Sarah Friar has expressed concerns for the revenue misses to colleagues and has issued company-wide edicts to keep a lid on costs and put more discipline into the $852 billion business.

Friar has expressed reservations about OpenAI's plans to go public, slated for the end of this year, and told company executives board directors that the group may not be ready to meet the reporting standards demanded of a public company, the paper reported.

The report comes just hours after OpenAI restructured its relationship with Microsoft, the tech giant which backed Sam Altman and the group in 2019, giving it more autonomy over how it sells it cloud-based products and opening the door to futures agreements with rivals such as Amazon.

Microsoft, however, will receive a share of OpenAI's revenue through 2030, regardless of the progress Altman's group makes in developing artificial general intelligence in the meantime.

"From a headline perspective, the loss of OpenAI exclusivity appears negative for Microsoft as it suggests less control over the intellectual property of the models while permitting OpenAI to work with other hyperscales like Amazon, Google, or Oracle," said Benchmark analyst Yi Fu Lee. "We acknowledge this is what Microsoft is giving up; however, the company is gaining improved visibility on the earnings potential, margin/profit clarity, and substantially lower tail risk on any future OpenAI governance change surprises."

OpenAI's revenue projections could certainly qualify as a surprise, as well. The Journal reported that the group had missed an internal goal of gaining 1 billion users a week for its ChatGPT chatbot, and still hasn't updated investors on meeting that milestone.

Monthly revenue targets this year have also been missed, according to the Journal, as rivals such as Anthropic gain broader market share.

The timing of the Journal report could be crucial for markets heading into the teeth of the first quarter reporting season, with updates expected from several key hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms, over the the next two days.

Microsoft, which owns a 27.5% stake in OpenAI, has invested more than

OpenAI giveth, and now it's taking away.

Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2026 08:38 ET (12:38 GMT)

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