IonQ Doubles Down on Nvidia Comparison. Why the Stock Is Falling 7% After Blowout Earnings

Dow Jones
05/07

IonQ set a high bar last year when its chief executive proclaimed that he saw the company becoming the " Nvidia player" of the quantum industry. That conviction only has solidified.

"It's always the ambition to be the Nvidia of quantum, and we're demonstrating we're on track for that," CEO Niccolo de Masi told Barron's ahead of IonQ's first-quarter earnings report. "These exponential curves are really compelling for shareholders, for our customers, and for our partners."

The company's latest financial results, posted after Wednesday's market close, beat along top-line metrics. For the first quarter, IonQ recorded an adjusted loss of 34 cents a share, narrower than the 46-cent loss analysts had anticipated. Revenue grew 55% year-over-year to $64.7 million, surpassing the FactSet consensus estimate of $49.8 million.

IonQ emphasized that commercial customers accounted for more than half of that amount -- a promising indicator in an industry hungry for signs of enterprise adoption. More than a quarter of revenue came from clients buying multiple products.

Remaining performance obligations -- the value of signed, firm contracts for goods or services not yet fully delivered -- rose 554% year-over-year to $470 million. That staggering growth served as the impetus behind a full-year guidance raise, with IonQ targeting between $260 million and $270 million in revenue in 2026, up from prior calls for $235 million. Analysts were looking for roughly $236 million.

Still, the stock tumbled 7.46% in after-hours trading Wednesday. Pure play peers D-Wave Quantum fell 4.7%; Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing fell more than 3% each.

Investors had maintained high expectations heading into the report, potentially accounting for the reversal in extended trading. Shares ended Wednesday's session up 9.5% as the broader tech sector rallied. The most likely explanation is that quantum is still viewed as a speculative investment.

Although some investors may feel IonQ isn't making progress as quickly as it should be, there were signs of improvement along the company's bottom-line.

IonQ recorded $805.4 million in first-quarter net income, compared with a loss of $32.3 million in the same period last year. This marks the second consecutive quarter IonQ was in the black, after reporting $753.7 million in net income last quarter.

For de Masi, who has long been as the company's most vocal advocate, IonQ's latest quarter was business as usual. "When we say we're going to hit something, we always deliver," he said. "And the same is true on the numbers. Our goal is to be the first to 10 figures." (Last year, IonQ became the first quantum pure-play to surpass $100 million in annual revenue under generally accepted accounting principles.)

Growing traction among commercial clients could fuel these ambitions. In the first quarter, the company sold its first 256-qubit system to the University of Cambridge, anchored by a partnership with the institution.

IonQ is also collaborating with other quantum companies in its goal to establish itself as de Masi describes as "the biggest merchant supplier to the sector." Horizon Quantum agreed last month to purchase one of IonQ's systems to serve as a testbed for its quantum software.

It's no coincidence IonQ is seeing its strongest performance at a time when quantum is being taken more seriously. De Masi himself has become a frequent expert witness and advisory collaborator for the U.S. government on quantum policy, and IonQ has a track record of collaborating with federal agencies.

"Quantum, a year and a half ago, might've been at a place where businesses and governments could sit by and wait a year or two or three, " the CEO said. "But quantum is doubly exponential. It's coming a lot faster than that."

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