MW Mortgage rates tick lower to 6.36%. Here's why the decrease probably won't last.

Andrew Keshner

A year ago, mortgage rates averaged 6.81%

Mortgage rates are in a lull - but for how long?

Mortgage rates edged lower on Thursday after increasing for two weeks - but the relief for buyers probably won't last.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched down to 6.36% from 6.37% a week ago, according to Freddie Mac (FMCC). Rates were averaging 6.81% a year ago.

That's the good news.

But the latest numbers come during a week when inflation data showed the cost of living climbing to a three-year high as the Iran war standoff continues. Other data hinted at more consumer inflation to come, as the wholesale prices that businesses pay reach a four-year high.

Mortgage rates tend to follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y. The Treasury market sold off sharply on this week's hotter inflation data and the increase in oil prices.

That brought the crucial 10-year Treasury yield to about 4.45% as of Thursday, versus 4% in March, at the start of the Iran war. The selloff has also been pushing 30-year mortgage rates closer to the 6.5% threshold that can stop refinancing activity in its tracks.

If inflation gets worse and the 10-year Treasury rate breaks through to 4.75%, it's easy to see 30-year mortgage rates moving higher, Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said in a phone interview Thursday.

Yet if the Iran war abruptly ends and oil crashes down to $80 a barrel, then rates should drop too. "It's going to move with inflation and oil right now," Buchta said of the mortgage market.

The housing market has shown some signs of movement, but it's still tough out there - for buyers and for sellers.

"While purchase demand is softening, it remains above this time last year," said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. "Recent data also shows existing-home sales modestly edging up."

Some people who want to sell their home are putting their listings under the stress test of social media. They're asking for harsh, honest feedback from Reddit (RDDT) users to understand why their homes are not selling.

Joy Wiltermuth contributed to this report.

-Andrew Keshner

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May 14, 2026 12:09 ET (16:09 GMT)

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