By Alexander Osipovich

SpaceX has a near-certain chance of achieving a market capitalization north of $1 trillion when it goes public, and a 73% probability of being valued at more than $2 trillion-at least according to bettors on Polymarket.

The bets are tied to SpaceX's market cap at the end of its first day of trading. The company aims to go public in June and is expected to target a valuation of more than $1.5 trillion.

It has a 17% chance of surpassing $3 trillion, and a 2% chance of exceeding 2%, Polymarket data suggests.

The crypto-based prediction market started offering bets on SpaceX's market cap about two weeks ago. They are thinly traded, meaning such probabilities should be taken with a grain of salt. Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

With a market cap above $2 trillion, SpaceX would be worth more than at least two other members of the Magnificent Seven: Meta Platforms and Tesla, whose market caps are $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively. Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, has a market cap of $5.4 trillion.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 21, 2026 07:28 ET (11:28 GMT)

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