By Adam Clark

Comparing Nvidia to Cisco Systems is a controversial topic. But there might be some reasons for investors to at least consider the similarities between the chip maker and the dot-com network darling.

Nvidia's sales growth this decade has looked similar to Cisco's in its 1990s heyday, according to Ned Davis Research Group 's chief thematic strategist Pat Tschosik.

After Cisco's sales growth peaked in the second quarter of 1996, it then went through seven quarters of growth deceleration, before then accelerating for 12 quarters. Meanwhile, Nvidia's sales growth peaked -- for now at least -- in the first quarter of 2024 and it then decelerated for six quarters.

However, Nvidia has now started accelerating again. If it follows the shape of Cisco, then that acceleration could keep going all the way through the third quarter of 2028.

"When Nvidia reported 85% Y/Y sales growth for its April quarter, it kept the acceleration going. While these are different tech cycles, Nvidia could easily still have two more years of acceleration given IPO liquidity should aid newer entrants (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic) growth," Tschosik wrote in a research note.

Of course, Nvidia investors still might not be all that keen on stressing the similarities. Cisco hit its dot-com peak of $80.06 on March 27, 2000. It then crashed and took more than 25 years to reach that level again -- finally doing so in December last year, fueled by the same artificial-intelligence rally that has driven Nvidia.

Nvidia shares were up 0.2% on Tuesday, having gained 64% in the past 12 months.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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May 26, 2026 10:01 ET (14:01 GMT)

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