The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0625 ET - Singapore's 1Q GDP outturn beat expectations, but RHB economists stay cautious, even as they keep their annual growth projection at 3.0%. The city-state's economic outlook has become increasingly uncertain amid heightened geopolitical and tariff tensions, says group chief economist Barnabas Gan. Despite its constructive view on manufacturing and export growth, RHB is wary about external risks, particularly from Middle East tensions and the potential unwinding of the AI-driven investment cycle--both which could weigh on Singapore's manufacturing and trade activities in 2026. The fluidity of the situation in the Middle East is a wildcard for Singapore's economy. While global AI-driven demand underpins manufacturing, risks are emerging from potential disruptions to critical inputs, like helium, which could constrain semiconductor and other high-value manufacturing. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0559 ET - The downside surprise in Singapore's core inflation in April doesn't dissuade UOB's economics team from expecting more tightening by the central bank. Rather, they think the CPI print actually bolsters the case for MAS policy tightening. Core CPI sped up on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, imported inflation accelerated and there are early signs of broadening price pressures, as evidenced by the increase in inflation pervasiveness. UOB maintains its 2026 core inflation forecast at 1.9% and headline inflation projection at 2.2%. Risks to both still tilt to the upside. "We still expect MAS to tighten monetary policy further at the Oct 2026 MPS," says Jester Koh. He sees scope for an earlier move, should second‐round effects intensify or inflation expectations accelerate. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0517 ET - Julius Baer Gruppe's stock fall after a weak update on its performance creates an opportunity for investors to step in, Citi analysts say in a note. "While we acknowledge that the update was disappointing, particularly around flows, equally not much has really changed, in our view, and the plan remains back-ended around improving flows and profitability," the analysts say. Things should improve from here for the Swiss private bank and there should be more clarity around client money flows, profitability and capital returns by the end of the year, they add. Citi raises its recommendation on the stock to buy from neutral, but trims its target price to 71 Swiss francs from 72 francs. Julius Baer fell 6.9% to 63.38 francs Friday, with the Swiss market closed Monday for a holiday. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0426 ET - Singapore's central bank is unlikely to tighten its monetary policy settings in the near term after its measure of core inflation unexpectedly eased in April, says Barclays' Brian Tan in a note. The April core consumer-price index rose 1.4% on year, below market expectations, he notes. While the drop was partly due to policy-related price adjustments in areas, such as health insurance, the April print will likely reassure the Monetary Authority of Singapore that inflation expectations are stable, he says. Barclays lowers its core inflation forecast to 1.7% from 1.9% for 2026--and to 1.8% from 2.0% for 2027. Barclays' base case is for no further adjustment to Singapore's monetary-policy parameters, although risks are still tilted towards tightening. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0322 ET - Singapore shares in oil-sensitive sectors such as real estate and aviation could rebound in the near term if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, DBS Group Research says in a commentary. Its analysts' base case is for an agreement to be reached by June, which should result in Brent oil prices dropping below $90 a barrel. Further signs that the key energy shipping lane is reopening could boost property developers, real-estate investment trusts and aviation-related companies. Meanwhile, DBS recommends buying bank or technology shares during price pullbacks. Lenders are resilient in an inflationary environment without a recession, while artificial-intelligence demand should underpin tech stocks, they say. Front-month Brent crude-oil futures fall 3.9% to $99.47 a barrel. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0300 ET - Thailand retail sector's 2Q earnings are likely to improve, Maybank Securities (Thailand)'s Suttatip Peerasub says in a research report. Drivers are stronger same-store sales growth, store expansion, and manageable costs and expenses despite rising oil prices, the analyst says. Most retailers' SSSG returned to positive territory in April, supported by hot weather, price adjustments, and stock-up demand, the analyst notes. CP All remains the brokerage's top sector pick based on its resilient earnings and attractive valuation. The brokerage also likes Moshi Moshi Retail Corp. given its robust earnings growth. Maybank Securities (Thailand) has buy ratings and target prices of 60.00 baht and 52.00 baht on CP All's shares and Moshi Moshi Retail's shares, respectively. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0258 ET - Asia-Pacific banks' credit profiles could be somewhat buoyed by government policy and sovereign credit strength even as the Middle East conflict drives up energy prices, says Moody's Ratings in a note. Governments in the region are likely to continue or introduce measures, such as fuel subsidies or price caps, to cushion higher energy costs' drag on borrowers, the analysts say. This could reduce nonperforming loan formation at banks, they say. Governments could also support large and midsize banks via capital injections, fiscal measures or funding, to reinforce market confidence, the analysts say. However, direct support in some emerging markets could be constrained by fiscal limitations, they add. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0232 ET - GMO Payment Gateway's earnings are likely to improve, supported by a solid project pipeline and a potential return to organic sales growth of up to 20%, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Structurally, as the Japanese cashless market continues to expand, the Japanese payment processing company is well positioned to benefit from these secular tailwinds in coming years, they say. Also, the company's overseas business is demonstrating strong growth momentum, the analysts say. Jefferies maintains a buy rating on the stock and raises its target price to 10,400 yen from Y9,420. Shares are 3.6% lower at Y8,533. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0140 ET - Tailwinds related to artificial-intelligence may continue to support Singapore's growth in 2Q and 3Q, says UOB's Jester Koh in a note. The tailwinds may also possibly fully offset any drags from energy and petrochemical input supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict. Singapore's 1Q gross-domestic product growth saw a sharp upwards revision to 6.0% from 4.6%, exceeding UOB's estimates and market expectations. The economist raises his 2026 growth projection to 3.2% from 2.5% to incorporate the 1Q outperformance and sustained AI tailwinds, reflected in the improvement in Singapore's April electronics purchasing managers' index, he notes. However, he flags that the duration and extent of Mideast-linked supply disruptions could pose a risk to this view.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0030 ET - China's crackdown on what it calls "illegal" cross-border trading is likely to have a limited impact on the yuan's trajectory, Maybank analysts say in a note. They note that capital outflows are higher after eight Chinese government agencies recently announced plans to clamp down on unauthorized offshore investment services. Maybank says Chinese authorities are using the currency's recent strength, supported by robust exports, as an opportunity to implement regulatory measures while minimizing unintended signals for the yuan. The dollar is 0.2% lower at 6.78 yuan in the offshore and onshore markets. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

2324 ET - Thai banks are likely to see their earnings somewhat cushioned by lower credit costs despite potentially weak top line growth, DBS Group Research analysts say in a note. The banks are expected to see soft top line growth in the year ahead, due to slower loan growth and contraction in net interest margins. However, disciplined operating cost control and manageable asset quality are seen to contain credit costs. DBS maintains a neutral rating on Thailand's banking sector, and names Krung Thai Bank, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank and Kasikornbank as its top picks.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2311 ET - Tokio Marine's shareholder returns could rise on its recent partnership with U.S. conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, says Morningstar's Iris Tan in a note. The agreement between the two companies boosted the Japanese insurer's shareholder returns, with its dividend per share rising 12% and share buybacks surging 59% in FY 2026, the analyst notes. She expects dividends to gain at a 9% compound annual growth rate through FY 2029, while buybacks are likely to hold at this level. Tokio Marine's valuation premium also remains supported by its above-peer return on equity, she adds, as its adjusted return on equity excluding equity sales gains reached 14%, while peers were largely below 8%. Morningstar raises its fair-value estimate to 7,500 yen from 5,500 yen. Shares are down 0.2% at Y7,365. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 25, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)

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