By Al Root

SpaceX's S-1 IPO registration statement had investors poring over it to find any edge in valuing Elon Musk's rocket company.

They were looking for reward, but they should also have been looking for risks. And there's one that SpaceX didn't mention: helium, one of the world's most abundant chemical elements that is very hard to get right now because of tariffs and the Iran war.

SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment about its helium risk.

All registration statements include the basics like a business description and financial data. SpaceX, for instance, estimates its addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with AI accounting for the vast majority of that. Plus, the company had almost $19 billion in 2025 sales, most from its Starlink space-based broadband internet service.

Registration statements also list risk factors. SpaceX has more than three dozen.

The first is Starship, the huge, fully reusable rocket system that will dramatically reduce the cost of reaching orbit. If Starship isn't reliable, launch capacity goes down, and costs and business headwinds go up.

Others are fairly typical: laws governing AI, competition, the economy, and talent acquisition and retention.

But nowhere is helium mentioned, even though Musk mentioned the it in a 2024 tweet. The noble gas -- completely colorless, odorless, and tasteless -- is used in rocket propulsion. Shortages and rising costs, of course, would impact SpaceX's business development plans.

"The global helium market is structurally an oligopoly, with production heavily concentrated in the United States, Qatar, Russia, and Algeria," wrote London merchant bank Ocean Wall. "This concentration renders the global supply chain exceptionally vulnerable to regional geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions."

SpaceX does list supply chain challenges as a risk factor.

Qatar, for instance, produces about a third of the world's helium annually. Helium is a byproduct of natural gas production, and Qatar's ability to produce and export both natural gas and helium has been significantly restricted by and the closure of the Hormuz Strait because of the Iran war.

Spot prices for helium have surged to more than $1,000 a thousand cubic feet, or mcf, up from more typical prices of $500.

The U.S. is the world's largest helium producer and has reserves roughly 100 times its annual production, which might mean SpaceX's biggest risk is rising prices rather than a physical shortage.

Other industries are threatened by potential shortages, too. A lot of the gas is also used in the semiconductor and medical industries.

To be sure, industrial gas companies such as Air Products are working to mitigate any impacts of war.

"Air Products' helium supply chain is very resilient with...multiple sources in the U.S., in addition to our long-term partnerships in Algeria with Sonatrach and in Qatar with QatarEnergy," said the company on its earnings conference call in April.

Air Products is ready for whatever comes its way. Hopefully, so is SpaceX.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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May 28, 2026 13:28 ET (17:28 GMT)

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