UnitedHealth's (UNH) "favorable" Q2 earnings setup and attractive risk/reward are driven by improving medical cost trends and supportive near-term data points, BofA Securities said in a Thursday research report.

BofA said it now expects EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 of $18.70, $21, and $24, respectively, from $18.30, $20.17, and $22.34 earlier.

The company is guiding to the low-end of target margins by 2028, but even then, it would be well-positioned to grow earnings by at least 13% to 16% in the coming years, given that Optum Health and Medicaid would have room to lift margins back to the midpoint of target, analysts wrote.

While the company's benefit cuts this year make it difficult to perform well, its contracts remain relatively diversified, according to the note.

The brokerage said it upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and boosted its price target to $450 from $420.

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