Paragon Care's (ASX:PGC) finalization of the "3-2-1" integration strategy should set the foundation for future growth, allowing management to focus entirely on growing profitability and expanding the company's offerings, Euroz Hartleys said in a note on Tuesday.

The company now expects revenue of AU$3.7 billion, previously between the range of AU$3.6 billion and AU$3.7 billion, and underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of AU$95 million to AU$100 million, previously between AU$97 million and AU$107 million, reflecting increased logistics costs and manufacturer pricing pressures arising from the Middle East conflict.

The revision represents a 4.4% reduction to midpoint underlying EBITDA, now AU$97.5 million against Euroz Hartleys' prior AU$102 million estimate, with implied second half underlying EBITDA around 8.5% below the prior guidance midpoint.

On balance, the potential Infinity Group receivership recovery is a positive. Even a partial recovery of AU$11.7 million to AU$15.8 million represents meaningful upside, with the full receivables balance having been previously written off in the first half of fiscal 2026.

The investment firm retained its buy rating on Paragon Care but cut the price target to AU$0.39 from AU$0.52.