The Canada fiscal 2026 year-to-date study permit holders remain weak, declining 25% year-over-year, and its alignment with IDP Education's (ASX:IEL) Canada volume has weakened since the first fiscal half, as the broader market data captures more than just higher education, Jefferies said in a note on May 29.

The fiscal 2026 year-to-date to March study applications declined 51% year-over-year, with an improvement in March. While the applications data spans all study levels, the post-secondary level remains the largest component.

The investment firm has a buy rating and a AU$7.80 per share price target on IDP Education.