MW Barry Diller's $12.4 billion offer for MGM is a big bet that Vegas is back

By Bill Peters

Las Vegas has suffered from uneven tourism trends as well as sports-betting competition, but analysts say there's reason to believe things are looking up for Sin City

People Inc. said Monday that it had submitted a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of MGM Resorts International and take it private.

Higher travel costs have dinged the Las Vegas tourism industry recently, but some analysts say media mogul Barry Diller's roughly $12.4 billion offer for MGM Resorts International offers up fresh optimism that Vegas may be due for a rebound.

Diller's People Inc., the publishing giant previously known as IAC, said Monday that it had submitted a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of casino and resort operator MGM Resorts and take it private in a deal that would value the company at around $12.4 billion, or $48.30 per share in cash.

Shares of MGM (MGM) jumped 15.4% on Monday to trade at around $50.41. The move higher would put the stock on track for its biggest gain since April of last year and its highest close since 2023. MGM, in a statement, said it was reviewing the proposal.

The offer from People $(IAC)$, which already owns 26.1% of MGM's outstanding common stock, comes as Vegas's tourism trends wobble this year. Meanwhile, the casino industry has consolidated and faces disruption from sports-betting sites as well as prediction-market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

But Dan Wasiolek, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, told MarketWatch that the deal furthers his belief that prediction-market competition is overstated. Sports events in Las Vegas could help accelerate the area's economy: The NCAA Final Four games and a stadium for the MLB's Athletics - formerly the Oakland A's - are both set to arrive in the city in 2028, and an NBA team may also be on the horizon. Meanwhile, the convention calendar looks more robust this year and next.

"I would argue Vegas never really left, but I think it's a sign that the prospects and the outlook for Vegas are back on the uptrend," Wasiolek said of Diller's offer.

He noted that Vegas had a strong recovery in 2023 and 2024, following pandemic-related disruptions and price spikes in 2022. But revenue plateaued, and the convention pipeline was a little softer, he said. Visits to Las Vegas fell 7.5% year over year in 2025 amid "shifting travel dynamics, economic uncertainty, and evolving policy conditions," the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority said in January.

After visitor volumes rose in March, they slipped 1.8% on a year-over-year basis in April, according to the group, as the Iran war drove gas prices higher and made consumers more cautious. Airlines have also cut flights and raised airfares against that backdrop. The collapse of discount carrier Spirit Airlines may have also had an effect on visits.

However, MGM, during its most recent earnings report, said revenue at its Las Vegas Strip resorts rose for the first time since the third quarter of 2024. Those sales came in at $2.2 billion.

Wasiolek also noted that people still want to travel. Diller, who serves as chair at People, in a statement on Monday also touted MGM's "real world assets."

"We began investing in MGM nearly six years ago because we believed it represented a rare kind of business: one with real world assets that [artificial intelligence] cannot easily replicate or disintermediate and exceptional digital growth opportunities," Diller said. "That conviction has only strengthened over time."

In a letter to shareholders, he said the proposal represents a premium of 24.1% to the average price of MGM's stock for the 30 trading days that ended on May 29. He said he expected MGM's current management would continue to lead the company. Diller, who also sits on MGM's board, said he would recuse himself from any board deliberations on the proposal.

Wasiolek said People's proposed acquisition of MGM - which operates Vegas hotels like MGM Grand, the Bellagio and the Cosmopolitan; resorts elsewhere in the U.S. and in Macau; and the betting site BetMGM - wasn't an exact fit for a company that publishes magazines like People and InStyle. But he said competing bids were unlikely.

People's proposal was made after Caesars Entertainment $(CZR)$ last week said it had agreed to be acquired by Fertitta Entertainment in a $17.6 billion deal. The deal, the companies said, would "create a dynamic suite of gaming, entertainment, and restaurant brands." Fertitta, which owns the Golden Nugget casino chain and the Houston Rockets NBA team, is run by Tilman Fertitta, the U.S. ambassador to Italy.

MGM's stock is up 61.7% over the past 12 months. However, it is off highs reached roughly two decades ago, when it was above $90.

During its earnings call in April, MGM said it was focusing more on customers seeking "value experiences." During the first quarter, executives said, they had tried to bundle more hotel and entertainment offerings, allowing customers to stay at properties like the Luxor or Excalibur with access to dining across several other properties.

Feedback on those offerings was positive, the company said. Around one-third of its bookings were from people visiting Las Vegas for the first time. Executives said MGM was "actively engaged" in discussions with the NBA and team owners about a potential expansion team.

"The ability to attract professional sports franchises and tentpole events exemplifies Las Vegas's structural resilience," MGM CEO William Hornbuckle said at the time. "The city consistently advances through challenging operating environments by evolving alongside customer demand."

-Bill Peters

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June 01, 2026 15:03 ET (19:03 GMT)

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