The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1117 ET - The weakness seen in major cryptocurrencies in the second half of May is expected to continue into June, Bitfinex analysts say in a note. "If seasonality follows the same pattern as previous bear market years, June is likely to be a negative month for cryptocurrency," the firm says. The analysts say that bitcoin appears to be following patterns seen in trading during 2018 and 2022 -- both considered bear-market years for the token. What could reverse this is if "institutional inflows return meaningfully" in June, Bitfinex adds. Bitcoin falls 3.1% to $71,345, while ethereum is down 2.1% to $1,963, XRP is down 3.5% to $1.28, and solana loses 2.9% to $79.48. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1049 ET - Futures markets price in higher odds of an increase in U.S. interest rates this year as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz seem to fall through. Tehran is reported to have halted talks over alleged violations of a ceasefire agreement with the U.S. On the CME FedWatch tool, odds of a hike by December rise to 43% from 36% Friday, beating odds of a hold, which fall to 39% from 55%. Treasury yields and the dollar also rise as oil futures rally on the news. WTI crude is up 8% and the WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.512%, back to last week levels. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1047 ET - Institutional investment in bitcoin ETFs has been on a streak of sizable outflows, according to data from Coinglass. On Friday, $125.3 million moved out of bitcoin ETFs, continuing a streak of outflows dating back to the middle of May. The weakness being seen while equities markets keep powering higher has investors thinking that the link between crypto and equities has eroded. Over $3 billion has been taken out of bitcoin ETFs in the past three weeks, says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. "The market became increasingly vulnerable to distribution-led selling pressure," says the firm. BTC is down 2.9% to $71,535, while ethereum falls 1.8% to $1,967. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1008 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar jump higher as Iran is reported to be stopping talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks on Lebanon against Hezbollah. Oil futures rise 7% on dwindling hopes of normalized supply lines. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.4%, after hovering around flat earlier. The greenback strengthens 0.4% against the euro and 0.3% versus the yen. The 10-year yield rises to 4.51% from 4.45% and the two-year is at 4.08, up from 4.03%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0959 ET - Eurozone government bond and U.K. gilt yields jump on a report that Iran halts talks with the U.S. in protest at Israel attacking Lebanon. Iran's Tasnim news agency says on X that Iran will halt the exchange of talks and messages through the intermediary with the U.S. The 10-year German Bund yield rises 8.3 basis points to 3.012%; the French 10-year OAT yield is up 10 basis points at 3.636%; the 10-year Italian BTP yield jumps 11 basis points to 3.750%; and the 10-year gilt yield is up 8.2 basis points at 4.889%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Bitcoin falls to a seven-week low after Iran's state media reported that the country is halting talks with the U.S. Iran's Tasnim news agency said Iran would cut talks through mediators in protest against Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Bitcoin is also dented by news that Strategy sold the cryptocurrency last week for the second time ever. Strategy sold 32 coins for $2.5 million at an average of $77,135 each between May 26 and May 31, according to a Monday filing. Bitcoin falls to as low as $71,495, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0943 ET - The Iran war looks set to remain a drag on the Japanese yen in coming months, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says as the yen falls to a one-month low against the dollar. Prices for fossil fuels could stay elevated, weighing on the Japanese economy's foreign trade balance, he says in a note. Furthermore, interest-rate differentials have moved against the yen as markets bet on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raising interest rates. "However, once the Iran conflict is resolved, the outlook for a stronger yen remains favorable," Baur says. The dollar rises to as high as 159.69 yen and Commerzbank expects it to reach 150 by December this year and 143 by December 2027. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0927 ET - An SEC filing from Strategy showing that the company sold 32 BTC last month is pressuring major cryptocurrencies. "Momentum is not on Bitcoin's side this week," says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau in a note. Even though the equities markets continue to be buoyed by strength in AI, that momentum is skipping most of the crypto space, Puckrin says. "This means Bitcoin is being driven more by crypto-specific sentiment, and this is close to rock bottom right now." The upcoming IPO from SpaceX isn't likely to help turn BTC around, he adds. Bitcoin is down 2.3% to $71,992, ethereum falls 1.1% to $1,983, XRP is down 2.3% to $1.30, and solana falls 1.7% to $80.52. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0855 ET - Forward rates suggest that yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, could remain elevated and even rise further in the years ahead, UBS economist Dean Turner says in a note. Higher yields mean higher debt servicing costs and "can quickly become a headache," he says. Turner notes that the U.K. has a debt stock of above 90% of GDP and a stubbornly wide government deficit. However, looking at the global picture, the U.K. is "neither in the best nor the worst position when it comes to the sustainability of public finances." The 10-year gilt yield is last up 2 basis points at 4.826%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0856 ET - Sterling could fall if potential U.K. Labour leadership challenger Andy Burnham secures a victory in an upcoming special election, Ebury economist Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. Burnham recently affirmed his commitment to the U.K.'s fiscal rules. However, the June 18 election Burnham must win to formally challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership remains key for sterling, Diaz-Alvarez says.A victory for Burnham would "open up some downside" for sterling as his preference for greater fiscal expansion would likely entail higher issuance of U.K. government bonds, he says. Sterling trades flat at $1.3464. The euro falls 0.2% to 0.8647 pounds.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0843 ET - An end to the Iran war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would allow the euro to recover against the dollar but gains are likely to be limited, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "While an October rate cut from the Federal Reserve should allow the euro to trend upwards in the second half, we don't expect the [euro versus the dollar] to gain significant upward traction in this period." The market is already well priced for two interest-rate rises by the European Central Bank in this period and eurozone growth headwinds mean the euro could struggle to reach $1.20 this year, she says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1646. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0841 ET - Bond markets are quiet as talks to reopen Hormuz continue even as the U.S. and Iran keep trading blows. The week brings a slew of labor data, starting with the JOLTS report tomorrow. The ADP report Wednesday is expected to show an increase in private-sector hiring, according to a WSJ consensus. Payrolls, on Friday, are forecast to slow down, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. WTI crude rises 3%, back at $90. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%. The 10-year yield is at 4.453%, little changed from Friday's 4.452%. The two-year rises to 4.033% from 4.013%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 01, 2026 11:17 ET (15:17 GMT)

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