Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) has a lot of work to do, particularly around the wind-down of non-core brands, which brings both cost

and complexity, Jarden said in a Thursday note.

It has made short-term decisions to the detriment of the business long-term, Jarden said, compounded by US distributor issues and regulations in China. However, its new Chief Executive is taking decisive action and a customer-led approach, rebuilding trust in the supply chain. The firm seeks to rationalize its portfolio from around 76 brands to fewer than 30.

The firm expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million, 1% above consensus. Fiscal 2027 guidance was broadly in line with consensus, with management targeting at least equivalent performance.

Jarden forecast fiscal 2026 EBITS of AU$487 million, at the higher end of the guidance range, but trimmed its fiscal year 2027 to fiscal year 2028 forecasts by around 5% to 6%.

The investment firm retained its overweight rating on Treasury Wine Estates and its AU$5 per share price target.