By Mackenzie Tatananni

Riding a wave of hype and capital, quantum computing was thrust back into the spotlight last month as the U.S. government made a $2 billion bet on the technology. It's too early to crown winners, but one firm is betting on two of the sector's dark horses.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman believes quantum is "set to become the next important step in computing," specifically through a hybrid architecture composed of CPUs, GPUs, and quantum processors. That's industry consensus -- few expect quantum computers to outright replace classical machines. What stands out is Newman's take on which companies will come out on top.

In an industry where the pool of publicly traded players seems to grow every day, Newman has selected Infleqtion and Rigetti Computing as two standouts. Both companies are set to receive $100 million in federal funding in exchange for equity stakes in their businesses.

It's a surprising call, considering Infleqtion has only been publicly listed since February, and Rigetti is one of the players that has faced a considerable degree of scrutiny from other analysts.

That wariness partly stems from Rigetti's deployment timeline miss earlier this year. The Berkeley, Calif. -- based company in January delayed the release of its next-generation Cepheus-1-108Q system, saying it needed to make more progress on the technical front. General availability was ultimately announced in April.

As other analysts have argued, the bulk of Rigetti's revenue is tied to milestone-based research and development contracts, which could limit its near-term growth potential. However, there are signs the company is breaking out of this rut. After recording no system sales in 2025, Rigetti secured new customers including an unnamed technology manufacturer and an Indian research institution.

Infleqtion has a shorter track record as a public company, seeing as it debuted through a blank-check merger in mid-February. Unlike Rigetti, D-Wave Quantum, and recently-public Quantinuum, Infleqtion isn't strictly a quantum computing play. The company has drawn attention for its quantum sensors, atomic clocks, and other products with national security applications that have turned it into a buzzy, multifaceted play.

The company made headlines in April when it said it was providing upgraded quantum hardware to the International Space Station through a NASA cargo mission. CEO Matt Kinsella quipped in an interview with Barron's last month that "the only thing better than quantum is quantum in space."

As Newman correctly identified in his note, each company takes a different approach to quantum technology. Rigetti favors a modality called superconducting quantum, building modular, multi-chip processors and operating them at near-absolute zero temperatures.

Infleqtion, meanwhile, is pursuing neutral atoms, a newer approach that uses individual atoms suspended in place by laser beams. While superconducting is seen as a tried-and-true method that leverages standard semiconductor manufacturing, neutral atoms are rapidly gaining traction as a promising alternative.

Newman's endorsement of Rigetti and Infleqtion boils down to the market's low expectations.

As the analyst wrote, "our framework indicates that current valuations imply only about 4% and 2% long-term market share, respectively." He believes investors aren't pricing in significant market share for either company, "so if either ultimately captures larger market opportunity, the upside could be meaningful."

It's easy to see why -- Rigetti and Infleqtion are smaller players in a landscape dominated by big names like IonQ and even bigger names like IBM. They're not only competing with the so-called pure plays, or companies focused solely on quantum technology, but differentiated, deep-pocketed players with well-capitalized R&D efforts.

Newman favors both Rigetti and Infleqtion for their strong risk/reward profiles, arguing that they offer a relatively cheap way to bet on "leading quantum modalities." In a sector defined by massive hype, his thesis is a reminder that sometimes the smartest bet isn't on the obvious front-runners, but on the players with room to grow.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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June 09, 2026 13:31 ET (17:31 GMT)

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