MW A flood of oil is set to hit energy markets. Here's how much crude may be unleashed.

By Claudia Assis

Despite a fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire and fears of an uneven recovery, millions of barrels of crude oil are already lined up over the short term

Vessels anchored off Oman's Port Sultan Qaboos on Saturday. Already, some 6 million barrels of Iranian oil are headed to refineries in China, Piper Sandler analysts said.

A new normal shaping up in the Middle East is signaling that about 150 million barrels of crude oil may be ready to hit markets - boosting hopes in the near term around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the many twists that the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations continue to take.

"Oil will flow again, though less freely and some in new ways," Jan Stuart, a global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note Monday.

The market has visibility on about 90 million barrels of non-Iranian oil in floating storage, or held in oil tankers, and about 68 million barrels of Iranian crude in the Persian Gulf ready to be unlocked. Already, 6 million barrels of Iranian oil are headed to refineries in China, the Piper Sandler analysts said.

Analysts at Veson Nautical said Monday that about 189 oil tankers remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, some of them laden with oil. Investors have followed tanker movements closely since Iran shut down the strategic Hormuz passageway in February.

A precise count is hard to come by, however, as many vessels "go dark," or turn off their transponder-like signals and radars in attempting to safely cross the strait.

Iran reinstated a transit permit on Sunday, but commercial traffic has been moving, including four outbound tankers laden with Iranian oil, maritime data company Windward said Monday.

The Strait of Hormuz in peacetime was the conduit of about 20 million barrels a day of crude and crude products, or about a fifth of the world's supply of the commodities.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration earlier this month calculated that the "very limited" shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had caused oil producers in the Middle East to reduce crude production by more than 11 million barrels a day in May.

The U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary peace deal last week that broadly calls for a 60-day cease-fire and punted some of the conflict's thornier issues, such as Iran's uranium stockpiles. The deal was signed late Wednesday.

Vice President J.D. Vance on Monday hailed progress in peace talks in Switzerland, saying that Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back in the country. Talks got off to a wobbly start over the weekend, including threats by President Donald Trump to resume attacks on Iran.

Maritime data-analytics firm Kpler clocked 71 confirmed tanker transits through the strait over the weekend, including a peak of 35 crossings on Saturday. But the Hormuz uptick "remains fragile," Kpler noted, as "many vessels continue using Iranian and dark routes while demining remains incomplete." In peacetime, crossings averaged about 135 a day.

Encouragingly, there have been no new physical attacks to ships in or near the Persian Gulf since mid June. New York-traded oil futures (CL00) (CL.1) dropped another 3% to $73.55 a barrel on Monday, while London-traded Brent crude futures (BRN00) fell nearly 4% to $77.68 a barrel.

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The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran unleashed the biggest energy supply shock the world has seen, but some mitigation factors, including the release of global crude inventories and demand curbs, kept a lid on oil prices during most of the conflict.

The war's shadow, however, is likely to lead oil-importing countries to rethinking their energy-security strategies, either by looking for alternatives to crude or alternatives to their supplies of crude.

That would render Hormuz as less of a chokepoint. Several Middle Eastern countries are exploring on-land alternatives to the passageway, such as new pipelines or pipeline expansions.

There are also concerns about a bolder Iran. The country has sought to exert control on the Hormuz flow beyond the 60-day cease-fire - and said last week that while it did not intend to charge tolls for passage, it could charge fees for navigation services, environmental protection and ship insurance.

-Claudia Assis

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June 22, 2026 14:33 ET (18:33 GMT)

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