The S&P 500 has clawed back some from a drop a few of weeks ago, now down only 3% from its record close. Still, it faces risks, namely AI chips and the Fed, and another slide certainly isn't out of the question.

The market has seen profit-taking from chip stocks because, as portfolio managers know, the explosive growth of AI chip demand will eventually slow down. Micron Technology's earnings will show whether that's happening sooner or later.

Worries about a Fed rate hike have also pushed the index down since early June. When new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first rate announcement, he made clear that fighting inflation is the central bank's priority. Already, short-term rates have crept higher. Higher rates slow economic growth, a risk that's not going away.

The point is that the market could easily suffer a garden variety correction -- a 10% drop, or more, from peaks. That's why some strategists are focused on stocks that can hold their ground, or even gain, when the market falls.

Evercore's Julian Emanuel screened for those names. He looked for ones with "negative betas" to the S&P 500 in the past six months. In other words, their prices have moved opposite of the S&P 500 on an average day.

The screen includes stocks with betas that range from just as 0.01% to -1.68%.

Many of those with the more extreme betas -- from -0.75% to -1.68% -- are all energy companies. They include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and APA Corp.

Three words explain their extreme betas: the Iran War. Oil prices surged, sending expected profits for oil producers way higher because higher sales tend to increase profit margins for the producers. On days when the S&P 500 gains because oil is down, energy stocks drop.

That brings the commodity's price into focus. WTI Crude, at about $70 a barrel, is closer to the lower end of its range this year, and down about 38% from its peak.

Sure, it's because the White House is trying to finalize a deal with Iran, but this agreement could easily hit many bumps or get derailed. As the process unfolds, oil will probably jump from now and then, which would send oil stocks higher.

Anyone who is sold on oil stocks should consider the most volatile ones -- those that have had larger upswings when crude gained and vice versa. APA Corp. is a prime example. It initially gained, over 70%, then dropped close to 25%, and could prove a fruitful trade if oil gains.

Emanuel's screen also turned up defensive stocks, those in sectors that aren't sensitive to economic changes and, consequently, have more predictable profits. They tend to see flows of money come in to support their prices when the broader market sinks.

Those names -- with betas larger than -0.1% -- include consumer staples Coca-Cola, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, and Altria; utilities Duke Energy, American WaterWorks, CenterPoint Energy, Consolidated Edison, and Exelon; and healthcare companies McKesson and Cencora.

If you're concerned about the market, these are the stocks for you.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 24, 2026 14:43 ET (18:43 GMT)

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