BHP Group's outgoing chief executive tried to cement the miner's position as the world's largest copper producer with a failed blockbuster takeover.

His successor faces the same challenge of balancing new mines and expansions with possible acquisitions that could secure BHP's role as the top supplier of a metal needed for data centers, decarbonization and defense technologies.

Brandon Craig, recently BHP's Americas chief, says he wants to pursue both reliable and more-creative growth in copper after he succeeds Mike Henry as CEO on Wednesday. His promotion comes as copper prices trade near an all-time high.

Under Henry, BHP reduced its reliance on iron ore and coal in a bet that copper would drive the next commodities boom. Acquisitions such as the 2023 takeover of OZ Minerals helped BHP's copper output surpass that of Chile's Codelco. In the first half of fiscal 2026, copper accounted for more than half of BHP's earnings for the first time.

Henry wanted to turbocharge BHP's copper business by buying Anglo American in what could have been one of the industry's biggest-ever deals, but was rebuffed several times. BHP ended its most-recent known approach in November, restricting it from bidding again for Anglo for six months.

"Brandon appears to be focused on progressing BHP's organic growth opportunities, particularly in copper," said George Cheveley, natural resources portfolio manager at Ninety One.

The company is considering major investments at its Escondida and Copper South Australia operations and planning new mines in Arizona and on the Chile-Argentina border. Those projects will take years to develop.

"The issue with this industry is you just can't turn things on," said Darko Kuzmanovic, a senior portfolio manager on the global natural resources team at Janus Henderson Investors.

BHP's copper volumes are forecast to be essentially flat until 2030, at a time when rivals are expanding. So, some investors want BHP to fill that gap with deals.

Acquisitions might be less likely while Craig settles in, but deals remain possible, said Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. He expects global miners to keep jostling for the best assets.

Earlier this year, Rio Tinto and Glencore discussed a deal that could have transformed them into the world's biggest miner, leapfrogging BHP. The talks didn't progress. Last year, Anglo American and Teck Resources agreed to merge, in a bolder bet on copper.

It is possible BHP could bid again for Anglo after the merger with Teck is completed, said LaFemina. BHP might pursue other major miners as well, he said.

Miners must weigh whether buying existing mines is cheaper and less risky than building them. The time it takes to develop new mines is getting longer, and costs are rising. The average time from discovering a copper deposit to first production is roughly 17 years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Two weeks ago, BHP announced another cost overrun on its Jansen potash project in Canada. BHP said that the investment needed for an expansion has risen by more than 40% to $6.9 billion and that it expects to write down the project's value by roughly $2.3 billion.

The cost overruns raise questions about how BHP will manage its pipeline of copper projects, Barclays said. The first and second stages of Jansen are the only major projects BHP currently has under construction.

Its copper ambitions "could see management attempting to execute four major growth projects simultaneously when it has been unable to manage the timeline and budget for one," Barclays said.

At an industry conference in May, Craig defended BHP's record of building projects, calling Jansen an exception. "We are very confident we have the internal capability to be able to deliver major projects," he said.

BHP is also sharing risk on some projects by developing them with partners, he said.

Addressing how he intends to bolster the copper business, Craig said he wants BHP "to be a lot more creative" in how it grows while highlighting the possibility of more partnerships and small acquisitions.

"And while we will remain extremely disciplined, our diversified model and strong balance sheet gives us the ability to move at pace if the right opportunity presents itself," Craig said.

Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 30, 2026 04:54 ET (08:54 GMT)

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