The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0818 GMT - Investors raise their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months given renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The fresh conflict has led oil prices to rise and revived inflation concerns, raising the possibility of the BOE increasing interest rates in 2026. Investors price in a 96% chance of a BOE rate hike in December following the new tensions, up from an 80% chance priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - The dollar could remain sensitive to any weak U.S. economic data given uncertainties over the stance of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. At the Fed's June meeting, Warsh said he was committed to price stability, although he has since said inflationary risks have eased. There is a growing risk that he'll want to resume cutting interest rates faster and more aggressively in the face of weak data and falling inflation, she says. The dollar will suffer more from weak data than positive data as there is hardly any room to price in more rate rises but there is scope for earlier rate cuts if data and Warsh convince other Fed officials, she says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0812 GMT - The Polish central bank's policy decision later in the day is likely to reinforce the prospect of the Polish zloty underperforming the Czech koruna in coming months, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says. The central bank is expected to leave rates at 3.75% and could deliver data-dependent guidance on future moves, he says in a note. Recent lower inflation data have stripped away the chance of rate rises, he says. Given the drop in energy prices, rate cuts could return for discussion by the fourth quarter, he says. In contrast, the Czech National Bank raised rates in June. The zloty rises 0.2% to 5.6343 koruna, having reached a two-and-a-half year low of 5.6127 overnight, according to LSEG.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - A 10% yen depreciation against the dollar was a net drag of about 0.14 percentage point on Japan's real GDP growth over the past year, according to Daiwa Institute of Research. While a weaker yen typically boosts growth via inbound spending and stock wealth effects, those benefits were concentrated among tourism businesses and high-asset elderly households, says Daiwa economist Keiji Kanda. Instead, higher import costs weighed heavily on most firms and households, while factors such as price pass-through, Middle East tensions, Trump tariffs and a decline in the number of Chinese tourists suppressed a weak yen's typical positive effects, he says. The yen remains near historic lows against the dollar, hovering around 162.20.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Global investors resume pricing in the possibility of high inflation as the U.S. and Iran resume attacks. "Markets do not need a full regional war to reprice risk; they only need enough uncertainty around energy flows to lift crude, and steepen inflation expectations," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Brent crude price rises 2.3% to last trade at $75.9. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, German Bunds and U.K. gilts rise to 4-week highs, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0751 GMT - The Bank of Thailand weighed the risks of maintaining low interest rates last month, according to minutes of the rate-setting meeting, where committee members voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.00%. Some committee members pointed to "the impact on the country's credit rating, diminished policy headroom and the accumulation of financial system vulnerabilities driven by extended periods of low interest rates." The central bank expects inflation to accelerate, reiterating its forecast of 2.8% for 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The BOT noted "that cost pass-through by businesses and medium-term inflation expectations should be closely monitored in an environment where prices and costs remained elevated." (jihye.lee@wsj.com)

0747 GMT - Gold prices edge lower but have so far found support above $4,100 a troy ounce as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for more cues on the monetary policy outlook. "The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting U.S. rate expectations," ING analysts say. "Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilize back above the $4,000-an-ounce level." Meanwhile, continued gold purchases by China's central bank, alongside reserve diversification by central banks globally, also provided underlying support for bullion. In early trading, New York futures fall 0.5% to $4,135.50 an ounce but are up more than 2% on the week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0726 GMT - The Swedish krona falls after data showed inflation eased in June, dampening the prospect of the Riksbank raising interest rates. The consumer price index with fixed interest rate fell to 1.3% year-on-year in June from 1.5% in May. "We see no reason for markets to price a hike back into the SEK curve at this stage, in line with our longstanding call for a prolonged hold," ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The euro could linger above 11.00 krona for longer before starting a gradual decline in late summer if markets reprice Federal Reserve rate rise bets, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to an intraday high of 11.0720 krona after the data, from 11.0531 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0723 GMT - London's miners fall in morning trade as oil prices move higher after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in an escalation that could threaten peace talks. All European indexes were down at the open. Higher oil prices could fuel inflation fears and lead to higher interest rates globally. Precious metal miner Hochschild Mining drops 3.2% while peer Fresnillo slides 2% and Endeavour Mining drops 1.4%. Diversified miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto fall around 1.7%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0722 GMT - Yields on U.K. 10-year gilts climb to their highest level since June 11 after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes caused oil prices to rise and revived inflation concerns. The U.S. struck sites along Iran's coast and blocked its ability to sell oil legally on Tuesday in response to Tehran's recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Ten-year gilt yields climb 8 basis points to 4.909%, a four week high, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - Bitcoin edges lower as renewed worries about an artificial intelligence bubble and the U.S.-Iran conflict weigh on risk sentiment. Chip giant Samsung Electronics' strong earnings failed to meet lofty expectations, dragging sector peers lower and prompting investors to flee AI investments. The U.S. struck sites along Iran's coast and blocked its ability to sell oil legally Tuesday in response to Tehran's recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reports. "We do not think that the recent developments will break the ceasefire, but they do highlight the fragile nature of the truce," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Bitcoin drops 1.8% to $62,514, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in opening trade, with the 10-year Bund yield hitting a four-week high of 3.032%, according to LSEG data. Rising eurozone bond yields follow their U.S. peers, with the 10-year Treasury yield also hitting a four-week high of 4.565% in Asian trade. Yields rise as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire came under renewed pressure, causing oil prices to move higher. The renewed military escalation "serves as a reminder of the fragility of the talks as well as underscores how deep the water between the parties still is," analysts at KBC Bank say in a note. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 04:18 ET (08:18 GMT)

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