The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1524 ET - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in rangebound trading with strong power-sector demand to meet air conditioning needs offset by adequate supply. The EIA said it expects natural gas consumption for power generation to set a record next year on rising electricity demand, expansion of the gas-fired generating fleet and relatively low natural gas prices. "Average consumption in the sector rises by 2% in 2026 and by another 4% in 2027 to 38.1 billion cubic feet per day," the agency says in its latest outlook. That includes a projected monthly record of 50.6 Bcf/d in July of next year. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.6% at $3.265/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil futures rise as Iran attacks vessels on the U.S.-backed Omani side of Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about Iran's efforts to assert control over the waterway. If peace negotiations falter or another disruption hits before inventories recover, markets could quickly find themselves under pressure again, Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst at consulting firm Baringa says in a note. There's political and economic pressure for oil flows to continue, she says. "Iran needs a huge amount of money to rebuild the country, and that money will come through oil flows. And President Trump needs those flows to resume given the upcoming midterms and the political capital that it's costing him in the U.S." WTI settles up 2.8% at $70.44 a barrel and Brent gains 3% to $74.16. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

The drop in crude oil prices should lower average U.S. retail gasoline prices to $3.80 a gallon in 3Q from $4.20 in 2Q, the EIA says in its latest outlook. But in the near term, "we expect the crude oil-driven decrease in gasoline prices will be partly offset by rising wholesale and retail margins as low gasoline inventories keep gasoline crack spreads elevated," the EIA says. As inventories rebuild and the summer driving season ends, however, refiner margins will narrow pushing gasoline down to $3.40 a gallon in 4Q, according to the forecast. The agency expects gasoline consumption in the second half of this year to remain below the five-year average as a result of higher prices and economic conditions. For 2027, the EIA projects gasoline prices to average $3.09 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1403 ET - The share of Canada's U.S.-bound exports is trending lower. Scotiabank's Mitch Villeneuve and John Fanjoy note the proportion averaged 76% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, and came in at 70% in May 2026. The shift has been driven by a decline in most exports to the U.S. and increasing shipments to other regions, especially Europe. Canadian exports heading to the U.S. in May rose 1.5% on-month and were up 9.3% compared with 2024, following three straight months of growth driven by higher oil prices, Villeneuve and Fanjoy say. Exports to non-U.S. countries dropped 0.3% on-month, but were up 49.5% from 2024. On the import side, the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. has gradually fallen to 58% in May from an average of 62% in 2024, the pair say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0739 ET - The war-related spike on oil prices, coupled with heavy artificial-intelligence capital expenditure, makes interest rates likely to remain elevated, AllianceBernstein's Scott DiMaggio says. "We don't think the Fed's going to hike, but it's a more challenging environment for them to cut." Crude prices have eased from recent peaks, but DiMaggio says the damage for inflation is done, making it hard to cut. Investment in AI, meanwhile, should keep debt issuance high and boost economic growth. "We've had what, four quarters in a row of upward revisions to the capex expenditure expenditures, and now we're looking at like $1.6 trillion over the next four years," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1121 ET - Canadian trade flows continue to be shaped by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, though the broader expectation remains that trade will become less of a drag on Canadian growth than it was in 2025 as the international environment gradually stabilizes, Royal Bank of Canada's Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say. The country's goods-trade surplus widened to about C$4.2 billion in May from the prior month's revised C$3.4 billion, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.2%. The economists say export volumes excluding price effects fell 0.5% for the month but are still tracking a large increase in the second quarter as a whole. Import volumes edged lower as well, albeit mainly thanks to a pullback in gold imports, Xu and Janzen say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1025 ET - A further widening of Canada's goods-trade surplus to a four-year high isn't as good as it first looks, since exports in volume terms were essentially unchanged, says Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis. She believes the only positive is that the rise in import volumes for May suggests domestic demand is gradually improving. Curtis adds the trade data look to be consistent with the flash estimate of a modest 0.1% on-month rise in GDP for May. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1020 ET - Canada has clearly snapped out of its two-quarter GDP funk with net trade roaring back to life, in part due to higher oil prices, says Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets. Based on Statistics Canada's trade report for May, exports rose 0.9%--and a solid 26% from a year ago. Energy sales account for the bulk of the increase, Kavcic says. Volumes were weak in May, but nevertheless Kavcic estimates net trade will "add meaningfully" to 2Q growth, of up to 2.0 percentage points. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1008 ET - After an initial push to regain customers and clear excess inventories, Persian Gulf producers are likely to moderate price competition to prevent oil prices falling much below $70 a barrel, says Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. "Much will depend on China, whose imports fell dramatically during the war, and how its refiners and state buyers respond in the coming months," the head of commodities strategy says. China has become an important price stabilizer in recent years, increasing purchases for strategic and commercial storage when prices are low and scaling back imports when prices rise sharply. Hansen says he expects China to approach refilling with some caution as it wants to avoid triggering a sudden boost to prices. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1004 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are steady in early trade with the market focused on summer weather and power-sector use. "Near-term weather-driven demand has eased from last week's highs, leaving traders without much new fundamental direction," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "Until forecasts show another sustained stretch of major heat, or storage data begins to materially tighten the balance, price action is likely to remain choppy and contained." Nymex natural gas is flat at $3.245/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0944 ET - Oil futures are higher after an Iranian attack on ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, a sign of Iran's determination to control the waterway. "Although the oil market's response to the headlines has been muted and limited to the crude markets, this event is highlighting a continued major difference between the U.S. and Iran as to who controls the strait," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Crude futures are holding just above their pre-war levels as oil shipments continue through the strait. WTI is up 1% at $69.25 a barrel and Brent rises 1.1% to $72.80.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0937 ET - Treasurys sell off, sending yields higher, as oil prices tick up following Iran's attack on ships near Hormuz. The U.S. trade deficit widens in May, to $77.6 billion from April's revised $54.6 billion. In a week relatively light on economic indicators, markets await Fed minutes tomorrow. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat, as the greenback weakens slightly against the Japanese yen. The 10-year yield is at 4.495%, up from yesterday's settle of 4.479%. The two-year rises to 4.139% from 4.124%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2026 15:24 ET (19:24 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.