The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1051 ET - The International Monetary Fund upgraded its economic-growth forecast for the U.K., reflecting momentum in the run-up to the outbreak of the war in Iran. The IMF now expects gross domestic product to rise 1.0% this year, from 0.8% it forecast in April. For 2027, growth expectations are unchanged at 1.3%. U.K. activity expanded 1.4% in 2025, with this year's slowdown due to rising energy prices, tighter-than-anticipated monetary policy and uncertainty weighing on private spending, the IMF's Petya Koeva Brooks says. But at a time when U.K. public finances are in the spotlight, the government's fiscal strategy strikes the right balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending, including frontloading of infrastructure investments, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1050 ET - Rising oil prices could drive up inflation concerns, reducing the possibility of central banks cutting interest rates to support their economies, eToro's Lale Akoner says. President Trump on Wednesday said that the Iran ceasefire is over, causing oil prices to jump. "The ceasefire had helped contain some of the risk premium in oil; its collapse puts energy prices back at the centre of the market outlook," Akoner says. "If oil keeps rising, central banks may have less room to soften their policy stance," she says, adding that bond yields could consequently rise further. Brent crude rises 7.4% to $76.68 while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rise to a 6-week high of 4.593%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1027 ET - Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran raise the risk of a second oil shock, which could push central banks into a more hawkish policy stance, Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics says in a note. "Some flare-ups were inevitable, unfortunately. The question is whether this represents a bump in the road or whether we're emerging from the eye of the storm," he says. A fragile peace deal will remain the key risk for the global economy moving into the second half of the year. "If the peace deal breaks...it won't just raise oil prices; it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the U.S. midterms." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

1023 ET - Sterling is at risk of turning lower after its recent outperformance, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "Despite this month's better tone, we don't see sterling as being free of political risk." Andy Burnham is widely expected to succeed U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on July 20. The tightness of the public finances means pressures on his leadership will inevitably mount, Foley says. Markets could also reprice in favor of the BOE avoiding interest-rate rises, further weighing on sterling, she says. Rabobank expects the euro to rise to 0.87 pounds by year-end. The euro falls to a one-year low of 0.8529 pounds, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Tariffs are likely to remain an inflationary force for a while, New York Fed researchers say in a new paper. Surveys show that, although many businesses have already fully passed through tariffs to customers and plan no further price increases, nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional hikes, the researchers say. Pass-throughs can be delayed by firms that operate under long-term agreements and can't change prices until the contract resets, for example. Some other businesses prefer to raise prices gradually to avoid shocking their customers. The researchers conclude that "inflationary pressures due to tariffs may well last for some time to come." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1014 ET - Sterling rises to a fresh one-year high against the euro, extending its recent gains following a recent easing of U.K. political concerns. Andy Burnham is expected to succeed Keir Starmer as the U.K.'s prime minister on July 20 with no other apparent challengers to his leadership bid. "The relatively smooth transition will come as a relief to markets," Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "Also, the popularity of Burnham within Labour may also be a good omen given the deep party factions which Starmer was unable to effectively control." The euro falls to as low as 0.8529 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1006 ET - Home price growth is now expected to slow to just 1.2% in 2026,Realtor.com says. That's a slower pace than originally forecast, and one that fails to keep pace with inflation, meaning home prices are effectively declining in real terms. The cooldown on home price growth comes as a resilient economy has kept mortgage rates high, offsetting rate relief seen earlier in the year. Realtor.com has also trimmed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4.10 million, down from the 4.13 million projected in December, though the number of sales is still expected to grow 1.0% over 2025, as momentum builds in the second half of the year. Rental prices, meanwhile, are on track to fall again in 2026. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0948 ET - The typical luxury home costs less than $1 million in five of the top 49 most populous metros, Redfin says. That's down from eight in 2025. The most affordable metro for buying a high-end home is Detroit, where the median sale price for a luxury home was $719,252 in May, 47.7% less than the typical luxury home nationwide. Detroit is joined by Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and San Antonio as the only major metros where the median luxury home costs less than $1 million. Fast home price growth pushed Indianapolis and St. Louis across the $1 million threshold, having seen high-end home prices rise 9% and 10.9%, respectively, over the past year. Nationwide, the median luxury home sale price is $1,374,470, up 4.7% from last year, according to Redfin. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0925 ET - The Polish zloty stays weaker against the euro after the National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% as expected. Recent data showed inflation eased to 2.5% in June, although underlying inflation remains elevated. "The decline in inflation has largely been driven by normalizing oil prices and unexpectedly sharp falls in food prices," ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. "Core inflation remains close to 3%." While NBP Governor Adam Glapinski might take a loose policy stance at Thursday's press conference, the debate over potential rate cuts should only gather momentum after the summer, he says. The euro rises 0.3% to 4.3049 zloty, having reached a 19-month high of 4.3160 ahead of the decision, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0919 ET - Today the Federal Reserve releases its minutes from the June meeting--the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Some economists predict the minutes will be much shorter, especially after the policy statement was more concise. While the minutes are somewhat backward looking for investors, they may provide insight into how the committee was thinking about inflation risks, especially as the conflict in Iran pushed headline inflation higher due to increased energy prices. Just last week, Warsh said his first weeks in the job have seen risks of higher inflation recede. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing in a 38.5% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Bonds sell off around the globe and yields rise as President Trump says he's done negotiating with Iran while hostilities flare up once again over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jump more than 4% and inflation expectations edge higher. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat following a sharp increase overnight when Trump made his comment in Ankara. Fed minutes this afternoon will be scrutinized to hints on how hawkish the central bank is leaning. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.565%, up from yesterday's 4.529% settle. The two-year rises to 4.195% from 4.161%. Both are off overnight highs. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0824 ET - Markets could face higher volatility for the remainder of 2026 as oil prices rise and supply falls, Algebris Investments' Gabriele Foa says in a note. Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks and President Trump's announcement that the Iran ceasefire is over raise fresh concerns about a potential oil-supply shock. Higher oil prices, lower global oil supply and renewed instability in interest rates could cause markets to be more volatile, Foa says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 10:51 ET (14:51 GMT)

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