Is It Too Late to Buy Oil Stocks? Here’s What the Options Market Says Happens Next

InvestorPlace

07/11

Oil spiked 7% today. WTI crude blew through $75 a barrel. Brent nearly touched $80. And every retail investor in America is asking the same question: is it too late to buy oil stocks? Here’s my answer...

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Here’s What the Options Market Says Happens Next","media":"InvestorPlace","content":"<div>\n<p>Oil spiked 7% today. WTI crude blew through $75 a barrel. Brent nearly touched $80.\nAnd every retail investor in America is asking the same question: is it too late to buy oil stocks?\nHere’s my answer...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late to Buy Oil Stocks? 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Here’s What the Options Market Says Happens Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-11 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil spiked 7% today. WTI crude blew through $75 a barrel. Brent nearly touched $80.\nAnd every retail investor in America is asking the same question: is it too late to buy oil stocks?\nHere’s my answer...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PXI","symbol_name":"Invesco Dorsey Wright Energy Momentum ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/","article_id":"2650159758","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investorplace_stock_picks","url":"https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650159758","pubTimestamp":1783781100,"columns":[{"name":"原油","id":4,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investorplace_stock_picks","name":"InvestorPlace stock picks"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over after three tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the headline story. Now here’s the part the headlines can’t tell you: what the smart money expects to happen next.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investorplace.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PXI":"Invesco Dorsey Wright Energy Momentum ETF","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","XOMZ":"1倍做空XOM ETF-Direxion","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","XOM":"埃克森美孚","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. 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WTI crude blew through $75 a barrel. Brent nearly touched $80.\nAnd every retail investor in America is asking the same question: is it too late to buy oil stocks?\nHere’s my answer, after 28 years trading options — including years as a market maker on the CBOE floor: stop asking pundits. The options market already voted, with real money. And I’m going to show you exactly how to read the ballot.\nWhy Are Oil Prices Surging Today?\nQuick recap of the news, because it matters:\nPresident Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over after three tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. struck Iran overnight, with threats of more strikes and a renewed naval blockade to come. The Treasury Department revoked the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell its crude. And the Strait — the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil — is once again effectively closed to most shipping.\nThat’s the headline story. Now here’s the part the headlines can’t tell you: what the smart money expects to happen next.\nThe Free CVOL Chart That Answers ’What Comes Next’ for Oil\nThe CME Group publishes a free tool called CVOL — think of it as the VIX, but for oil (and gold, and silver, and everything else that trades as a future). It’s a speedometer built from real option prices: one number that tells you how BIG a move traders are paying for.\nYou don’t trade futures? Doesn’t matter. Crude oil options are where the world’s biggest energy traders — producers, refiners, hedge funds — place their real bets. When oil moves, XLE, USO, Exxon and Chevron move with it. This is the X-ray of the market that drives your oil stocks.\nHere’s what that X-ray showed today:\nCrude oil’s skew ripped higher today. Skew tells you which direction the money leans. When upside calls cost more than downside puts at equal distances from the price, traders are paying for higher prices — not protecting against lower ones. And today, as crude gapped 7%, the skew didn’t just stay positive — it JUMPED, one of its sharpest one-day moves of the year. Traders piled into upside calls.\nThe expected-movement gauge is elevated too — crude’s CVOL sits around 60, roughly double its calm-market levels — but today’s tell was the skew. That’s the difference between “the market expects movement” and “the market is paying for a SPIKE.” Crude’s upside-skew regime started when the Hormuz crisis first erupted this spring, and today it re-accelerated.\nTranslation, in plain English: the options market is priced for a market that SPIKES, not one that fades quietly back to $60.\nOne honest caveat, because I trade this stuff and you should know it: extreme readings cut both ways. When skew gets WAY out of line, you’re often near the top or bottom of a big systematic move. Today’s reading is elevated — not yet at the panic extreme we saw this spring, when it briefly went off the charts before crude pulled back. Watch that.\nThe Quiet Winners: Refinery Stocks and the Crack Spread\nHere’s the part of this story almost nobody is writing about — and it’s where the strongest bid in the energy tape is showing up: refiners.\nQuick definition. The crack spread is a refiner’s profit margin. A refinery buys crude oil, “cracks” it into gasoline and diesel, and sells the products. The crack spread is simply the price of what they sell minus the price of what they buy. When product prices rise faster than crude, the spread widens — and refiner profits explode.\nRight now, it’s not widening. It’s ripping.\nThe gasoline crack spread is running above $53 a barrel — near its highest level since June 2022. The standard 3-2-1 refining margin is more than DOUBLE where it sat before the Iran conflict broke out. And that’s with U.S. refineries already running near maximum capacity, in the 92–95% utilization range.\nWhy? Follow the barrels. With Hormuz restricted, the world isn’t just short crude — it’s short refined products: diesel, jet fuel, gasoline. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners sit in the sweet spot. They buy WTI-based crude — which trades several dollars cheaper than Brent — and sell finished products into a global market paying panic prices. Cheaper input, premium output, maximum volume. That’s the whole business, and right now the math has rarely been better.\nThe names with that exact profile: Valero (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX) — the big Gulf Coast independents with WTI-advantaged crude access. Shell has already told the market to expect significantly higher trading results from this volatility; the pure-play refiners are the more direct expression.\nTwo honest caveats. First, headline crack spreads include renewable fuel credit costs, so true margins are somewhat lower than the sticker number. Second — and this is the real risk — refining margins are cyclical and mean-reverting, and $50+ cracks have already drawn political fire: the White House is publicly demanding lower pump prices. Fat margins attract attention. Trade the spread while it’s wide; don’t marry it.\nOil Stocks and ETFs: What Today’s Spike Means\nI’m not going to hand you a buy list — that’s not what this piece is. But here’s the map for the tickers everyone is searching today:\nXLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR). The one-click basket of big energy. In a spike regime, the majors inside it — Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) — benefit from higher realized prices, and Shell has already signaled sharply higher second-quarter trading results on exactly this volatility. But XLE has already moved. The options data says expect violence in both directions, not a smooth ride.\nUSO (United States Oil Fund). The retail favorite for “just give me oil exposure.” Understand what you own: USO holds crude futures, and in a supply-shock market, futures curves get weird. It tracks the panic on the way up and bleeds in the chop. It’s a trade, not an investment.\nProducers with barrels outside the blast radius. When a fifth of the world’s oil is bottlenecked in the Gulf, barrels that DON’T transit Hormuz get more valuable. That’s the lens for U.S. shale names like Occidental (OXY) and the Permian producers. The EIA reported U.S. crude and product exports already hit record levels as the world scrambles for non-Gulf supply.\nThe trap to avoid: chasing a 7% gap with your whole position. When volatility doubles, position sizes should shrink, not grow. Risk gets decided before entry — that’s not a slogan, it’s how floor traders survive decades.\nHow to Watch CVOL Yourself (Free, 5 Minutes a Day)\nYou don’t need my newsletter to track this. Bookmark cmegroup.com/cvol — no account, no cost.\n\nOpen the dashboard and find WTI Crude Oil.\nWatch the CVOL number. Rising = bigger moves coming (either direction). Falling = the storm is passing.\nCheck the skew. Positive and rising = traders paying for higher prices. If it flips negative while headlines are still bullish — that’s the tell that the smart money is quietly buying crash protection.\n\nThat’s how you stop guessing what traders think and start reading what they’re paying for.\nWant to learn to read the market this way every single day?\nTo learn more, check out the Masters in Trading Challenge — where we teach real, usable information for traders and investors: the same tools, the same process, the same follow-the-money doctrine you just read.\nJoin the Challenge: InvestorPlace.com/Challenge2026\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSubmit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nArticle printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2026/07/is-it-too-late-to-buy-oil-stocks-heres-what-the-options-market-says-happens-next/.\n©2026 InvestorPlace Media, LLC","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}