After a few rough days of trading, SpaceX stock is only a few dollars away from breaking its IPO price.

There are a few reasons for that.

Elon Musk's rocket and AI company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11. Shares opened at $150 on June 12. They were as high as $225.64 on June 16. Since then, shares have fallen almost 40%. They fell as low as $136.78 on Monday, a hair's breadth above the IPO price.

That's surprising for a stock Wall Street loves. Overall, 80% of analysts covering the stock rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%. The average analyst price target is about $240, valuing SpaceX at about $3.2 trillion.

SpaceX picked up another Buy rating on Tuesday, with Evercore ISI launching coverage. The broker's price target is $230 per share.

The new rating wasn't helping. SpaceX stock was down 0.4% in premarket trading at $138.61, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively.

A few things have weighed on shares. For starters, there is China. On July 10, a Chinese Long March booster rocket was caught on a ship using movable cables. That's a little different than SpaceX, which uses landing legs on its Falcon 9 boosters.

It's quite an achievement, and shows that others are building reusable rockets. That represents the erosion of one of SpaceX's competitive moats: Launch dominance. SpaceX's yet-unparalleled ability to launch payloads into space is a major reason Wall Street is positive on the company's outlook.

Technical factors might also be weighing on shares. After the company's first quarterly report, likely in mid-August, 20% of the outstanding shares will become available for trading. Investors might fear the additional supply could put downward pressure on the stock, so they are trimming positions now.

Then there is valuation. SpaceX is valued at about $1.8 trillion, but isn't expected to make money in 2026. Shares trade for almost 50 times estimated 2026 sales. SpaceX is expected to grow rapidly, but that's still a rich multiple.

SpaceX stock was never going straight to the moon. No shares ever do. Now investors have to deal with the share price coming back to Earth.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 07:29 ET (11:29 GMT)

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