Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is set to report its second-quarter earnings before the U.S. market opens on Thursday. Its guidance will be a crucial test of whether artificial-intelligence spending will keep boosting the chip sector.

Analysts forecast TSMC will report a net profit of 626.82 billion New Taiwan dollars ($19.47 billion), rising 57% from the same period a year ago, according to a FactSet poll.

According to its monthly revenue figures, TSMC logged revenue of NT$1.27 trillion for the second quarter, up 36% from the same period last year. The company has previously estimated 2026 revenue growth at more than 30%.

Writing ahead of the earnings report, analysts at Jefferies predicted TSMC could lift its full-year revenue growth outlook into the 30%-35% range.

TSMC is the main supplier of chips to Nvidia, the leader in semiconductors used for AI applications. TSMC also makes the core processors inside Apple iPhones, Qualcomm mobile chipsets, and processors made by Advanced Micro Devices.

Apart from earnings, the market will also be watching the company's comments on capital expenditure. TSMC has previously said it expects capex to come in at the higher end of its $52 billion to $56 billion forecast, up around 30% from 2025.

A big part of that spending is happening in the U.S. TSMC has pledged a total of $165 billion in American investment, including building three new chip plants. Shareholders will want reassurance that the U.S.-made chips can eventually be produced at the same margins as those manufactured in Taiwan.

TSMC is looking to fend off a challenge from Intel, which has received U.S. government backing. Intel currently pays TSMC to make an estimated 30% of its wafers as it builds its own manufacturing capacity and invests in new products. But Intel -- which was a recent Barron's stock pick -- is hoping to attract major customers to its own manufacturing services.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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July 15, 2026 14:00 ET (18:00 GMT)

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