Copper futures need to drop 10% to 15% to become attractive, says BCA Capital commodities strategist

Copper prices have risen to record highs this year as demand surges amid the build-out of artificial intelligence.

Copper has been moving "in tandem" with artificial-intelligence hyperscaler stocks since the start of the year, and prices need to drop as much as 15% for the metal to become attractive again, according to an investment research firm.

Not only is copper vital for the expansion of artificial intelligence, but it has actually been "moving in tandem" with hyperscaler stocks since the start of the year, Roukaya Ibrahim, head of commodity and energy strategy at the Montreal-headquartered BCA Capital, said during the company's webcast on Tuesday.

Copper prices (HG00) have climbed 12.5% since the start of the year, while shares in Nvidia (NVDA) have risen 12.4% and shares in Broadcom $(AVGO)$ have advanced 13.2%.

For Ibrahim, this correlation signifies that the source of interest in copper is its long-term potential in the AI industry. "That's very positive for copper," she said. "But the problem now is that they've become quite disconnected from fundamentals."

"I think, what makes me nervous about the continuation of the copper-price rally is that, I think, it has been really very much investment-driven, rather than fundamental-driven," Ibrahim said, adding that she would need to see a pullback for the metal to become attractive again.

Copper prices have reached record highs driven by both supply tightness and a surge in demand led by efforts to boost the build-out of AI.

As the metal is used to power graphics processing units, it plays an essential role in data centers. But as demand has surged while budgets for AI spending have soared, it's facing a global shortage, with ongoing delays to mining and the smelting process.

Copper (HG00) was trading at $6.41 a pound on Wednesday after reaching an all-time high of about $6.69 in May.

Ibrahim said a decline of between 10% and 15% in copper prices based on the recoupling of prices and fundamentals would present a strong buying opportunity for investors.

-Nora Redmond

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July 15, 2026 11:32 ET (15:32 GMT)

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