Elevance Health is breaking the Medicare Advantage curse, and the insurer's earnings could show it on Wednesday.

The stock is up nearly 22% in 2026, as of Monday's close, when shares closed at $426.79. Health insurer stocks have rallied this year after a tough run of rising medical costs that hampered earnings in 2024 and 2025.

The results come just a day ahead of the monster of the industry, UnitedHealth Group. Wall Street will be watching to see if these two companies can keep the momentum going.

Elevance raised guidance in April -- to adjusted earnings per share of at least $26.75 for 2026 -- and reiterated the guidance last month.

Elevance's health insurance portfolio is spread across the commercial market and government programs such as Medicare Advantage, which offers health benefits to seniors, and Medicaid, which provides coverage for lower-income beneficiaries.

Analysts have sounded positive on the managed care sector leading up to quarterly results.

"We broadly expect large payors to outperform consensus," TD Cowen's Ryan Langston wrote in a client note Tuesday, raising his price target for Elevance Health from $400 to $465.

Cantor Fitzgerald said it's "broadly comfortable with payors" and prefers exposures to insurers over medical providers going into earnings season, per a July 7 note from analyst Sarah James. The bank raised its Elevance price target from $400 to $450.

Wall Street forecasts adjusted earnings per share of $6.21, down from $8.84 the same period a year ago, according to FactSet. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $48,843, down from $49,421 a year ago.

Another important metric that gauges an insurer's medical spending -- the medical cost ratio -- is expected to come in at 90.1%, versus 88.9% the same quarter last year.

In June, Elevance gave investors a welcome update on the closely watched Medicare market, where insurers hit snags before 2026. Chief financial officer Mark Kaye said performance in Medicare Advantage was "favorable to our expectation" thus far, according to his remarks at Goldman Sachs' global healthcare conference.

Medicare is a huge source of business for large insurers, and for Elevance it comprised nearly 26% of operating revenue in the company's health benefits segment during the first quarter. But postpandemic, rising use of healthcare and higher associated costs created turbulence for managed care companies. Similar to industry peers, Elevance shares fell sharply in January when federal Medicare officials initially proposed a lower-than-expected rate increase for insurers.

This year, Elevance has exited certain geographic markets in Medicare and changed its plan offerings, effectively shrinking its membership in an effort to improve margins.

For Elevance's Medicaid book, Kaye cautioned during the Goldman conference that costs remained elevated, and the company still expected a full-year margin around -1.75% in that line of business. It's an area Wall Street will pay attention to this week, both when Elevance and UnitedHealth report. "We continue to view UNH and ELV's negative Medicaid margin targets for 2026 as conservative," UBS analyst A.J. Rice wrote July 9.

Two big factors boosted health insurer stocks this spring. In early April, the federal Medicare agency announced a larger payment increase for insurers in 2027, compared with the earlier proposal that was slimmer. A string of positive first-quarter earnings reports then showed investors that insurers were getting a handle on medical spending.

Write to Catherine Dunn at catherine.dunn@dowjones.com

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July 14, 2026 18:07 ET (22:07 GMT)

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