UnitedHealth Group's stock fell hard in 2025. This year is different. When the healthcare insurer reports second-quarter results Thursday, the company's 2026 bounceback has investors eager for confirmation that medical spending trends are in hand.

UnitedHealth has notched a series of wins heading into earnings season. More than a dozen analysts have raised prices targets for the insurer since May, according to FactSet. Shares are up nearly 27% so far in 2026.

The Medicare Advantage program for seniors' healthcare is a key business for UnitedHealth -- and higher costs in that market tripped up the insurance giant last year. But positive first-quarter results gave Wall Street a reason to cheer.

Additional company commentary at BofA's healthcare conference in May underscored the theme. Chief financial officer Wayne DeVeydt told investors that "if the trends we saw in the first quarter were to continue, this will be a very strong year."

Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, up from $4.08 the same quarter last year. Revenue of $110.8 billion is expected, according to FactSet, versus $111.62 billion in the second quarter last year.

The forecast for UnitedHealth's medical cost ratio stands at 88.5, down from 89.4 the same time a year ago. The figure, watched closely by analysts, is a measure of medical spending as a percentage of premium revenue.

Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter is "increasingly confident" that costs in Medicare Advantage are "trending better at this stage," he wrote in a July 13 note, raising a price target for UnitedHealth from $397 to $485.

"While there is likely upside to numbers," UBS analyst A.J. wrote in a recent note, "we would tend to temper expectations as to how much upside this quarter, given UNH's tendency to invest some of that upside to reposition the company for long-term growth."

As UnitedHealth has scaled back its Medicare footprint to improve margins, the company is also aiming for cost savings by investing about $1.5 billion in artificial-intelligence initiatives.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright calls the AI efforts "an underappreciated earnings lever" for UnitedHealth. "We expect this will become increasing important for the stock as AI proof-points build," she wrote in a client note.

Write to Catherine Dunn at catherine.dunn@dowjones.com

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July 15, 2026 17:54 ET (21:54 GMT)

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