Ted Oakley says investors are passing up commodity-stock opportunities

Agnico Eagle Mines' underground hauling trucks in an undated photo. Oxbow Advisors says investors are overlooking mining companies like Agnico.

A "generational bear market" is looming for investors with little powder to take advantage of, as they have chased rising popular stocks, warns one veteran wealth manager.

"In something like that, you'll probably correct at least 40%, if not more," Ted Oakley, the founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, told The Julia La Roche show in an episode that aired Thursday.

He explained such a pullback would stretch over a year or two, instead of just three or four months. "We're about three standard deviations higher than the norm, and that's way out of line, and just to come back to that level you would have 40% - 45% selling," he said. "It's not a normal market for sure."

The manager, who has been advising high-net-worth clients for more than 40 years, said the next six to 12 months could see the stock market hit a high that "sticks awhile." However, grabbing the last "6% to 8%" of that final push higher would open an investor to a potential 25% downside - meaning "the risk/reward on that has gone against you."

Oxbow would be ready to look for opportunities in such a market, he said, but many investors who just put money in the S&P 500 SPX probably don't have much dry powder to take advantage of the dip.

The company's chief investment officer, Chance Finucane, explained further about Oxbow's caution looking ahead to 2027, in a separate interview with David Lin. He said they see "potential for a deeper decline because you're going to be cycling through some high-growth, high-inflation numbers from the first half of this year."

"When you cycle against that next year, it is going to look like growth is really decelerating, inflation's coming down. That's not a great environment for risk assets," Finucane said in the interview, which was also released on Thursday.

Oakley said investors really aren't prepared as semiconductors "took over the market" in the last couple of months, from just a small slice of the S&P 500 three years ago.

"What's happened is you have 10 or 12 companies that are half the market. And I don't think people realize that they're not diversified by just buying the S&P 500. And that's in addition to speculation that has gone higher and higher over the last year or so," he said.

In a note to clients published earlier this month, Oxbow gave an example of how chasing hot stocks, such as semiconductors, has its risks. His firm sold Intel $(INTC)$ in 1999, after a 400% gain over the four years prior. The stock rose another 100% in the 12 months to March 2000, but then took 26 years to equal those gains, they noted.

Oakley said in Oxbow's stock strategy, they're just over 60% invested, with 45 names and the rest in short-term Treasurys.

He said he's a fan of the energy space where they see "lots of good buy," while adding that forecasters are too bearish on oil prices. "I would be more than surprised, again, if you don't see oil back over $100 bucks again. I think there has been more damage to production than people realize there has been."

Among the stocks they like, they picked up Northern Oil & Gas $(NOG)$, buying around $18. It hasn't gained much, "with a 9.5% to 10% dividend on production thats 70% hedged, so that company can pay its dividend," he said. Another bargain stock he noted is gas producer Antero Resources $(AR)$.

Kimbell Royalty $(KRP)$, which owns pure mineral and royalty interests across 17 million acres in the U.S., is in a space they are particularly excited about. He said they own stocks in several royalty companies, which function as specialty financiers for projects in exchange for a fixed percentage of revenue for minerals and energy.

Another favorite right now, Canadian gold miner Agnico Eagle Mines $(AEM)$, is around 45% off its 52-week high and is a "great buy," given where physical gold prices are and what it costs a miner to pull it out of the ground, he said.

Oakley said gold (GC00) - down 7% over a year and hovering under $4,000 an ounce - is at the point of becoming attractive. That's as the market flushes out the rest of the investors who were chasing it higher late last year and early this year, before turning against them after a historic 2025 run.

"You're probably close to washing all those people out, and then getting rid of that momentum. And if you are, then that sets you up for a nice move in gold and the miners and silver too up into next year sometime," he said.

-Barbara Kollmeyer

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July 17, 2026 07:46 ET (11:46 GMT)

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