MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
ECB rate decision, eurozone consumer confidence; France business sentiment; trading updates from Nestle, Roche, TotalEnergies, BNP Paribas, Nokia, STMicroelectronics, Repsol, Carrefour, Anglo American, Galderma, UniCredit, Thales, BE Semiconductor, Givaudan
Opening Call:
European stock futures edged lower early Thursday. Asian stock benchmarks largely advanced; the dollar edged lower; Treasury yields were little changed; oil futures extended gains; while gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a slightly lower open in European markets on Thursday. Investors are parsing earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and IBM, which offer an early read on profits at Big Tech, as well as a widening Middle East conflict.
The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The latest flare-up in fighting between the U.S. and Iran probably won't be enough to force the European Central Bank's hand later Thursday, even as energy costs creep higher.
Investors expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Policymakers raised borrowing costs by a quarter of a point in June, having decided it was time to start trying to curb inflation.
Forex:
"The FX market remains trapped in a low-volatility regime despite renewed U.S.-Iran tensions driving oil prices higher," OCBC said. However, "a sustained oil shock could quickly revive volatility and underpin a broader USD rally," the bank added.
Bonds:
A renewed selloff in the Treasury market in July has the bond market at a worrying milestone. The "long" 30-year Treasury yield on Tuesday hit 11 straight sessions above 5%, its longest stretch since May.
"The biggest enemy" working against longer-duration bonds is inflation, said Dustin Reid, chief fixed-income strategist at Mackenzie Investments. "And if inflation is going to be higher for longer, then you need to be compensated for that."
Energy:
Brent crude oil could target the $100 level if tensions continue to intensify, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said. While the market is paying for logistics risk rather than lost barrels now, that distinction could narrow quickly if attacks continue.
She said the biggest risk for energy markets would be prolonged simultaneous disruption at both Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz. At that stage, the market would have very limited flexibility to reroute cargoes, and the shipping disruption could quickly evolve into a broader inflationary problem.
Metals:
While a modest dollar pullback has supported gold prices, the broader outlook remains bearish in the near term due to elevated bond yields across major economies, said Tony Sage at Critical Metals.
Gold prices are at risk ahead of central bank decisions with the ECB rate decision this week, and the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England next week.
-
Iron ore rose in Asian trading. The global surge in iron-ore shipments during the first half of the year has largely run its course, Nanhua Futures said. Shipments typically ease in July due to seasonal factors. Given shipping lead times, port arrivals are expected to remain relatively weak over the next two weeks.
Still, declining profitability at Chinese steel mills continues to weigh on demand, leaving few near-term price catalysts. With prices across the ferrous metals complex remaining relatively low, iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range near term.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
How Wall Street's Bots Are Cashing In on Trump's Truth Social Posts
President Trump's Truth Social is selling stock market traders superfast access to his posts on the platform. Wall Street was already in on that game.
Many big investment firms have developed automated systems to monitor Truth Social, detect important keywords and take action-often within a fraction of a second-such as initiating or canceling positions, traders said.
The bull market faces higher likelihood of a Fed rate hike as Iran crisis intensifies
The bull case for stocks suddenly looks more fragile as the Iran war intensifies, oil prices rise and anxiety builds in the U.S. bond market about possible Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Tech stocks have been the main driver of the bull market as its four-year anniversary nears in October. Pockets opened up when the rally expanded beyond tech, signaling an economic backdrop and a healthier bull market that could last longer.
U.S. Surges Forces Toward Middle East, Giving Trump Options to Expand Iran War
WASHINGTON-The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.
In the past week, special-operations forces have deployed to the region from their U.S. bases, according to flight-tracking data and U.S. officials. Squadrons of jet fighters have been staged across the Middle East, and bomber aircraft at bases in the U.S. and U.K. are on high alert to ramp up operations, according to one of the officials.
Why the ECB Will Probably Hold Rates Steady Despite Iran Inflation Fears
The latest flare-up in fighting between the U.S. and Iran probably won't be enough to force the European Central Bank's hand on Thursday, even as energy costs creep higher.
Investors expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Policymakers raised borrowing costs by a quarter of a point in June, having decided it was time to start trying to curb inflation.
Google's AI Spending Spree Has Investors Nervous
Wall Street's tolerance for artificial-intelligence investment might seem to have no limits, but Google parent Alphabet found one Wednesday: $200 billion.
After the $4 trillion company raised its estimated capital expenditures to a new range that extends past that figure while reporting its second-quarter earnings, investors punished the stock, which fell more than 4% in after-hours trading before recovering slightly.
Tesla's $5.8 Billion in Spending Turns Cash Flow Negative Despite Revenue Surge
With its eye on an AI- and robotics-driven future, automaker Tesla boosted its spending to $5.8 billion in the second quarter, sending its free cash flow into the red for the first time in two years despite a surge in revenue.
"This is a massive cap ex year, but I'm confident all the things we're investing in will yield incredible returns," Chief Executive Elon Musk told investors on a call Wednesday.
IBM Lowers Its Growth Outlook as Sales of Data-Center Mainframes Sink 42%
IBM warned investors on Wednesday that its full-year revenue growth will be lower than it had previously forecast, one week after suffering its worst single-day stock loss in history when executives previewed disappointing results.
The company posted its second-quarter earnings Wednesday, confirming the results that it previewed last week in a rare move that erased about $67 billion in stock market value.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
04:30/NED: Jul Consumer confidence survey
06:00/DEN: Jul Consumer expectations
06:00/EU: Jun New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)
06:45/FRA: Jul Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries)
08:00/ICE: Jun PPI
08:00/POL: Jun Unemployment
08:00/ICE: Jul CPI
10:00/UK: Jul CBI Industrial Trends Survey
11:00/TUR: Turkish interest rate decision
12:15/EU: ECB interest rate announcement
14:00/EU: Jul FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator
23:01/UK: Jul UK Consumer Confidence Survey
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2026 00:01 ET (04:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.