Cruise stocks have entered choppy waters lately but Royal Caribbean's earnings Tuesday could mark a return to smoother sailing.

The sector has been at the whim of oil prices for much of the year and as a result has had a challenging 2026. Royal Caribbean is up more than 5% this year but its biggest rivals Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line are down around 10%.

Sharp falls in oil prices in recent days have helped the stocks but earnings will chart the path ahead for the rest of the year.

Analysts are expecting earnings of $3.98 per share, down from $4.38 in the second quarter of 2025 but ahead of Royal Caribbean's own guidance for between $3.83 and $3.93 issued at the end of April. They expect revenue of $4.8 billion.

"The cruise narrative has been a moving target," Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham wrote Sunday.

He noted that cruise stocks were underperforming the market for the first time post-Covid pandemic. However, he added that cruise stocks were on a "positive long-term trajectory" even if they were currently working through near-term noise.

Guidance and demand commentary will be key. Wall Street is looking for strong numbers in the third quarter, expecting EPS of $6.26 on revenue of $5.6 billion.

Keep an eye out for changes to the full-year guidance. The analyst consensus is for EPS of $17.32, right in the middle of the cruise operator's $17.10 to $17.50 range.

Another thing that could boost the stock would be positive news on the company's Perfect Day Mexico private destination. The Mexican government blocked the project back in May, hitting the stock.

However, Royal Caribbean announced plans to develop a community center in the nearby area last week.

"We think this is an interesting announcement and view it as a concession to the government of Mexico and a potential step towards getting the Perfect Day Mexico project back on track," BNP Paribas analyst Xian Siew said in a note last week.

"If Perfect Day Mexico is back in play, this would be a positive catalyst for the stock as we think the market is discounting this possibility," he added.

Siew has a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $357.

Norwegian is set to report earnings on Thursday, with Carnival expected to report in the fall.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com

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July 27, 2026 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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