Brazil Sees a Trump-Led Effort to Tilt Election Against Lula

Dow Jones
07/28

SÃO PAULO -- Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is pushing back against what he sees as a coordinated effort by the Trump administration and an emerging alliance of right-wing leaders across Latin America to shape October's presidential election and return the Brazilian right to power.

The diplomatic standoff intensified Sunday night when Brazil recalled its ambassador to Argentina in protest of President Javier Milei's visit to São Paulo to endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro and the Brazilian right's presidential candidate.

Speaking to cheering supporters Saturday, Milei called da Silva a corrupt "thief," urged conservatives across the region to unite against socialism and called Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who led investigations into Jair Bolsonaro, a "bald piece of garbage."

The rift between South America's two largest countries comes as Brazil fears the Trump administration is trying to sway Brazil's razor-close presidential election and return the right to power.

With recent elections in Colombia, Chile and Peru delivering victories to conservatives broadly aligned with Trump's worldview, Brazil is poised to be South America's last large country governed by the left. Da Silva, long the standard-bearer of Latin America's left, leads Flávio Bolsonaro, the jailed former president's eldest son, by 5 percentage points, according to the latest Datafolha poll.

"Brazil's destiny is for Brazilians alone to determine -- without foreign interference or subservience," da Silva wrote in an opinion article published in the Washington Post over the weekend. Accusing the U.S. of imposing "ideological constraints on the bilateral partnership," da Silva said Brazilian exports to the U.S. had fallen to a near-30-year low while commerce with China -- now Brazil's biggest trading partner -- has surged.

The standoff with the U.S. began in July last year, when Trump announced some of the highest tariffs of his second term on Brazil while calling for an end to criminal proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro. Unlike many countries targeted by Trump, Brazil has long run a trade deficit with the U.S.

The strategy largely failed. Brazil's Supreme Court convicted Bolsonaro of plotting a coup just two months later and sentenced him to 27 years in prison.

Officials in da Silva's administration now believe Bolsonaro's sons -- including presidential candidate Flávio, Eduardo in the U.S., and Carlos -- are coordinating with the Trump administration to advance their father's political project by attacking Brazil's electoral system. They have pointed to meetings between the Bolsonaros and foreign diplomats in which they allegedly spread false information about the reliability of the country's electronic voting machines.

Brazil's Foreign Ministry said Saturday it had denied visas to two U.S. State Department officials over concerns they planned to visit the country this week as part of a broader effort to undermine confidence in Brazil's electronic voting system. Brazilian officials believe the planned trip was part of a concerted campaign by the Bolsonaro family and the Trump administration to discredit the election should Flávio Bolsonaro lose in October, according to people close to da Silva.

The U.S. State Department confirmed the officials were scheduled to visit Brazil to discuss election integrity, religious freedom and freedom of expression, calling any suggestion the trip was intended to undermine Brazil's democracy "a baseless lie."

Milei's appearance at Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign launch on Saturday added another layer to the fears of foreign interference. The wild-haired Argentine president -- who has long feuded with da Silva -- bounded onto the stage to rock music and danced before cheering supporters, and attacked Brazil's "injust" institutions.

"What we're seeing right now is a complete breakdown of a diplomatic tradition that was alive and well in the '90s in Latin America about just not openly meddling in each other's domestic affairs," said Oliver Stuenkel, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan dismissed Milei as a "clown" Monday, pointing to how much better his country's economy was faring than that of Argentina.

"It's completely unacceptable for the president of another country to come here without any official notice, insult our authorities, criticize our economic policy and dance around. We couldn't just let that go unanswered," Durigan said during a local radio interview.

The dispute has also unnerved diplomats in Argentina, whose economy depends far more on trade with Brazil than Brazil's does on Argentina. While China is Brazil's biggest trading partner, Brazil is Argentina's largest.

Some political analysts in Brazil said the escalating confrontation with both Argentina and the Trump administration could benefit da Silva politically. Fears over foreign interference have historically strengthened nationalist sentiment and rallied voters around the incumbent.

"The Lula government could have avoided the Milei trip, they could have not allowed Milei to land but they allowed it to happen because the reading is that that helps Lula," said Stuenkel. "The spectacle of Milei and Flávio dancing on stage -- that's not going to mobilize centrists, who are really going to be decisive in this election."

Write to Samantha Pearson at samantha.pearson@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 16:01 ET (20:01 GMT)

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