Quantum computing is set to redefine how we process information. And while the industry doesn't bring in much money today, Wall Street predicts it will reach a commercial tipping point fairly soon.

Benchmark analyst Gary Mobley reinstated coverage of three of the buzziest quantum pure plays -- IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing -- on Monday, taking over from David Williams. The initiation coincided with an announcement from D-Wave regarding an expanded partnership with AT&T to use its signature annealing quantum systems.

"To be clear, we are bullish on the quantum computing sector" as a whole, Mobley said. He believes the technology's legitimacy has crystallized on the back of recent scientific progress and a growing number of real-world applications.

In his view, quantum isn't a "winner-takes-all" kind of industry. Rather, as the technology remains in the early stages of commercialization, "the best strategy for investors may be to take a portfolio approach to investing in the sector."

IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti are three of the most established pure-play companies, or those focused solely on quantum technology. They have the longest track record on the public market, beginning with IonQ's debut through a blank-check merger in 2021, followed by Rigetti and D-Wave in 2022.

Mobley rates all three stocks at Buy with a $60 price target for IonQ, $30 price target for D-Wave, and $25 price target for Rigetti. Shares were broadly rising on Monday, with IonQ rising 7.1% to $35.16; D-Wave jumping 16% to $18.87, and Rigetti up 8.2% at $15.31.

Though Quantinuum has eclipsed IonQ as the largest public quantum player by market capitalization, bulls still consider IonQ a prime front-runner. The company has branched into adjacent quantum technologies like networking, sensing, and security -- an approach that "positions the company as a foundational technology platform on which the broader industry can build," Mobley wrote.

In his eyes, this could allow IonQ to become "the dominant standard across the full ecosystem."

D-Wave, the first to sell quantum systems, has carved out its own niche through the pursuit of annealing quantum computers that are tailored to optimization problems. Mobley believes these machines "are the only quantum technology today delivering a quantum advantage to users, helping solve real-world practical problems."

In a bid to expand its market footprint, D-Wave struck a $550 million deal for Quantum Circuits earlier this year to hone its focus on gate-model systems. Mobley forecasts these systems will generate material revenue over the next two years to supplement existing system sales and cloud service subscriptions.

Although the analyst is awaiting more substantial commercial shipments from Rigetti, he views the company as "one of the most focused pure-play quantum computing chip companies in the public markets." Rigetti leverages the expertise of big names like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia in cloud infrastructure, software, and hardware, and this "capital-efficient approach" allows the company to dedicate resources to its core focus of quantum chip production, Mobley said.

Benchmark projects the quantum industry should log roughly $1.5 billion in revenue, plus or minus $100 million, in 2026. While conceding that this figure is "not terribly impressive," Mobley sees the sector reaching "a commercial tipping point" in 2026. Specific, high-stakes industries like pharmaceuticals and material sciences are successfully piloting quantum algorithms and seeing early returns, he said.

"In our view, 2025 and 2026 will go down as the years of legitimacy for the quantum computing sector," Mobley said, citing record investment from venture-capital firms and increasing government support. In the U.S., this culminated in a $2 billion funding package to catalyze the buildout of the domestic supply chain.

Both D-Wave and Rigetti struck tentative agreements for $100 million in federal funding in exchange for partial ownership stakes. IonQ and Google were among the companies that bowed out, with a Google executive saying "various conditions that came with the funding" would quash progress.

The deal wasn't perfect, but it was deeply symbolic. Following the United Nations' designation of 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, momentum around the field shows no signs of slowing down. The technology has firmly caught the attention of world leaders, who are increasingly focused on quantum's national security implications aside from hopes of market dominance.

"The quantum computing industry is shifting from pure physics experiments to early enterprise-scale production," Mobley said, while acknowledging that a broadly transformative, fault-tolerant machine "is still at least a few years away."

Therein lies the reminder that quantum computing is a long-term investment. For now, stocks remain volatile -- trading largely on hype, sentiment, and isolated headlines. But for steadfast enthusiasts, the wait may prove well worth it.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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July 27, 2026 13:29 ET (17:29 GMT)

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