Shell to Report Higher Earnings with Portfolio Longevity in Focus

Dow Jones
07/29
 

Shell is scheduled to report results for the second quarter on Thursday. Here is what to know.

 

EARNINGS FORECAST: Shell is expected to post adjusted earnings--a closely watched company metric--of $8.92 billion, according to a Vara Research-polled consensus of 20 analysts. This compares with the $6.915 billion it reported in the preceding quarter and $4.26 billion a year earlier. The company's second-quarter results will have benefited from higher prices and an improved trading performance.

 

CASH-FLOW FORECAST: The energy major is expected to book $21.22 billion in cash flow from operating activities, according to analysts polled by Vara. This compares with the $11.94 billion it booked a year earlier.

 

Shares have risen 20% over the year to date but have underperformed peers. This is partially due to the cut to its buyback and comparatively less exposure to refining, which is benefiting from improved margins.

 

WHAT TO WATCH

 

--Shell's traders are expected to have continued their run of strong performances after benefiting from volatility triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Notably, its gas traders will likely improve on the prior quarter after benefiting from higher prices, which are typically delayed due to price-lag effects in contracts.

--The oil company is expected to continue repurchasing $3 billion a quarter of shares, with the pace and scale of its buyback to remain front of investors' minds, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote in a note. In May, Shell lowered its buyback to $3 billion from $3.5 billion previously.

--Net debt is expected to fall 21% from the $52.6 billion it reported in May, UBS analysts said.

--Investors will continue to question how Shell can add to its oil and gas reserves via exploration or mergers and acquisitions, Borkhataria said. Its recent $13.6 billion ARC Resources acquisition helps raise production by 2035 but its portfolio longevity is still weaker relative to peers, he said.

 
 

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