Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
07/29

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0725 GMT - Spanish utility Endesa is raising its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings on strength in its integrated-electricity and gas-unit margins, RBC Capital Markets' Fernando Garcia and Charlotte Mettyear say in a research note. The company now expects net ordinary profit of more than 2.4 billion euros this year, up from its previous guidance range of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion euros. "It looks like the company will continue enjoying strong electricity integrated margin on gradually passing on to customers the increase in ancillary service costs and gas unit margin on the increase in the TTF," the analysts say, referring to the benchmark contract for European gas prices. Shares rise 2%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0714 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb due to inflation concerns after the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks, causing oil prices to rise. On Tuesday, Iran launched missile attacks on American forces in Jordan while the U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed groups based in Iraq. Investors await a rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day and from the Bank of England on Thursday. Ten-year gilt yields climb 1.2 basis points to last trade at 4.969%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0706 GMT - Bitcoin rises as the dollar eases ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 1800 GMT. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but any signals about future rate rises could lift the dollar and real yields, placing renewed pressure on bitcoin, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. Meanwhile, Iran launched a ballistic-missile attack on American forces in Jordan. "Bitcoin can initially fall during geopolitical shocks when investors reduce leveraged and speculative positions, although prolonged currency or banking uncertainty can later strengthen its appeal as a scarce, decentralised asset," Aslam says. Meanwhile, Emirates introduced crypto payments for flights and Core Scientific and Hyperscale increased their bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin rises 0.8% to $64,344, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0654 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade, tracking a move higher in U.S. Treasury yields following a jump in oil prices. Oil prices increased after Iran attacked U.S. forces after some days without strikes from either side. Rises in yields are moderate, however, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision later in the day. While the Fed is widely--although not unanimously--expected to stay on hold, the key question should be how markets will "fill the guidance gap" during the press conference, says Commerzbank's Erik Liem in a note. The 10-year Bund yield rises 1.6 basis points to 3.122%, according to LSEG. (emee.bartha@wsj.com)

0633 GMT - The dollar edges lower as investors turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later. While the Fed is largely expected to leave rates steady, a rate rise cannot be ruled out. LSEG data show markets pricing a 71% chance of unchanged rates and a 29% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase. The decision is due at 1800 GMT. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the Iran war persists. Iran launched a surprise attack on American forces in Jordan, U.S. official said. It raises the prospect that the U.S. will have to respond following a brief pause in fighting to allow for negotiations. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.313.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0545 GMT - Oil price developments have become a key driver of U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path, DHF Capital S.A.'s Bas Kooijman says in a note. "The outlook could shift depending on how developments in the Middle East and oil prices evolve," he says. A deeper and sustained decline in oil could reinforce disinflationary pressures and curb monetary policy tightening expectations, while renewed escalation could revive inflation concerns and drive Treasury yields higher, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0541 GMT - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the Fed funds rate, but "the bigger story will be the Fed's messaging," Generali Investments' Paolo Zanghieri says in a note. The senior economist expects policymakers to maintain--or even strengthen-a hawkish tone as persistent inflation, rising oil prices and divisions within the FOMC keep the door open to further tightening later this year. "This aligns with Generali's broader outlook that sticky inflation will keep central banks cautious even as headline inflation eases," Zanghieri says. The economist adds that markets will focus less on the rate decision itself and more on any signals regarding the September meeting and the balance between inflation risks and economic growth.

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