Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/04

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1005 ET - The Hungarian forint stands to benefit the most among its central European peers from hopes for Middle East diplomacy due to its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. "The lack of further escalation points to a more constructive mood in the days ahead, while new highs in euro-dollar should support some gains in Central and Eastern European currencies." The euro falls 0.2% to 363.75 forints. It reached a one-week high of 364.94 on Friday, LSEG data show. The forint's decline Friday was driven by risk aversion and Hungary's temporary closure of a nuclear power plant which could affect both industrial production and energy imports, Taborsky says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0921 ET - CBOT grains are mostly lower premarket, with most-active corn futures down 0.5% and soybeans sliding 0.7%. Grains are taking a cue from the big dip seen in crude oil prices--down 6.7% to below $80 a barrel. "The focus remains on the war fronts and mostly on a more optimistic outlook for the Strait and Iran, with negotiations at least scheduled for this afternoon," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Grains and oil are connected via grain usage as a feedstock for renewable fuels. Wheat is higher premarket, with that most-active contract up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0901 ET - Oil futures are sharply lower after the U.S. suspended planned strikes on Iran in favor of resuming talks. President Trump said at the weekend that "the perimeters of a deal" have been agreed to, including the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has yet to confirm that talks with the U.S. are set to restart, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital notes. "The current geopolitical rhetoric is exerting downward pressure on oil prices, which is beneficial for other markets. Nevertheless, oil prices could quickly reverse if talks do not resume," he says. WTI is down 6.3% at $79.31 a barrel and Brent is 5.3% lower at $83.25.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0331 ET - European energy stocks open lower on slumping oil prices as President Trump prioritizes diplomacy and says new talks with Iran will begin Monday. This pushes Brent down 5.2% to $83.41 a barrel, while WTI falls 3.3% to $73.94 a barrel. In London, BP falls 2.1% and Shell drops 1.2%. France's TotalEnergies, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol all fall around 2.2%. Norway's Equinor is down just over 3%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

2145 ET - Fluence gets a new bull at Bell Potter, where analyst Ritesh Varma points to expanding margins and potential valuation upside at the water-management tech provider. Raising his recommendation to speculative buy from speculative hold, Varma writes in a note that the Australia-listed company has demonstrated an ability to grow its higher-margin divisions. He points out that first-half gross margin rose to 35.5% from 26.8% a year earlier, while first-half Ebitda was the company's strongest in at least five years. The first half is typically softer than the second half due to customer order patterns, he adds. Varma hasn't included the potential award of an operations and maintenance contract in Ivory Coast, which he thinks could provide valuation upside. Target price remains 11 Australian cents. Shares are up 2.6% at A$0.08. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2119 ET - Origin Energy's bull at UBS thinks the Australian power retailer's update has lowered risks around next month's annual result announcement. With an unchanged buy rating on the stock, analyst Tom Allen tells clients in a note that the A$911 million of liquefied natural gas dividends that Origin received in the 12 months through June was about A$110 million more than the consensus forecast. He sees potential for Origin to beat expectations for its final dividend. Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, Allen says that LNG production guidance was in line with expectations, while expense guidance was slightly lower. He reckons this could point to positive risks for fiscal 2027 dividends. UBS raises its target price by 0.4% to 13.45 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.6% at A$10.93. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2108 ET - Origin Energy's balance sheet could be constrained by power oversupply dynamics past fiscal 2030, Macquarie analysts warn. They tell clients in a note that price weakness in both electricity and gas is a major headwind for the Australian generator and retailer. The analysts say government intervention has pushed the power market into oversupply and that the outlook at least into fiscal 2029 appears to be extremely challenged. They add that it is unclear how the oversupply will clear unless generators phase out coal on schedule, which consensus views as unlikely. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and lowers its target price 1.6% to 10.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 1.9% at A$10.96. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1937 ET - Oil prices are lower in early Asian trade amid hopes of a possible U.S.-Iran deal that could ease supply disruptions. President Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. will engage in talks with Iran starting Monday afternoon. Trump said he had been prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but had been talked down by U.S. allies. Oil prices are also likely weighed by the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production by about 188,000 barrels a day in September. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 4.6% at $80.77 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 4.5% lower at $83.98 a barrel.

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