Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
08/03

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0901 ET - Oil futures are sharply lower after the U.S. suspended planned strikes on Iran in favor of resuming talks. President Trump said at the weekend that "the perimeters of a deal" have been agreed to, including the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has yet to confirm that talks with the U.S. are set to restart, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital notes. "The current geopolitical rhetoric is exerting downward pressure on oil prices, which is beneficial for other markets. Nevertheless, oil prices could quickly reverse if talks do not resume," he says. WTI is down 6.3% at $79.31 a barrel and Brent is 5.3% lower at $83.25.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0834 ET - Food inflation will be higher for longer as a result of climate-related supply shocks, lower investment and other factors, UBS analysts write. High welfare standards for livestock, as well as higher labor costs and fast-growing demand will also lift prices. Advances in agricultural technology might reduce costs and improve farm profitability, but would only modestly ease food prices. If food inflation persists, a greater proportion of customer wallets will go toward supermarkets, the analysts say. Such a development means food retailers might benefit from higher food prices, the analysts say. However, consumers might in turn spend less on eating out and on other discretionary, non-food consumer goods. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0635 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, tracking rival soybean oil's sharp decline and expectations of continued selling interest amid new U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for Monday, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. The planned talks have once again renewed traders' hopes for a potential agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease energy supply disruptions. However, palm-oil buying interest from India ahead of the festive season is helping cushion the price drop, the analysts add. Kenanga Futures sees support and resistance for the October futures contract at 4,550 ringgit a metric ton and 4,680 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery fell 14 ringgit to 4,629 ringgit a ton. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0353 ET - Gold prices edge higher after President Trump refrained from launching fresh attacks on Iran, sending oil prices lower and easing concerns about inflation and further interest-rate hikes. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.2% to $4,113.90 a troy ounce. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, tumbled to $83 a barrel as Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran beginning Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.1% to 99.79 after Japan and the U.S. confirmed joint intervention to shore up the yen, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0019 ET - Iron ore futures are lower in Asian trade, with the most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropping 2.4% to 701.0 yuan a metric ton. ANZ Research analysts see little prospect of reversing the structural decline in Chinese steel demand. They estimate that only targeted policy support focused on infrastructure and selective industrial measures can help the market. Against this backdrop, weak domestic consumption, still-elevated inventories, and rising physical supply could weigh on iron ore, they said in a note. Iron ore is a key input for steel production.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2239 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by last Friday's declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Concerns over rising production and profit-taking could also weigh on market sentiment, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures remain in bearish momentum, and traders could stay cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's July supply and demand data release, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects prices to face resistance at 4,677 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,618 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is 19 ringgit lower at 4,624 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2119 ET - Copper rises in early Asian trade, with the three-month LME contract up 0.2% at $13,819.00 a metric ton. Copper prices are finding support as supply-side issues continue to tighten the market, ANZ Research analysts say in a report. "Chinese smelters are grappling with a shortage of copper concentrate and scrap copper, which has sent key spreads higher," ANZ adds. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2044 ET - Gold rises in early Asian trade. The direction of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields and incoming U.S. labour market data will affect gold's trends over the next few sessions more than the traditional safe-haven narrative, says Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. Geopolitical risks no longer mean that gold prices will have a one-direction reaction, as Middle East tensions can drive oil prices and inflation expectations higher as much as it can strengthen safe-haven demand, the analyst says. Gold is currently in a transitional phase and recent gains look more like a technical rebound, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.4% higher at $4,058.79 a troy ounce.

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