The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1206 ET - The further widening of Canada's merchandise-trade surplus in June suggests trade momentum continued to hold up at the end of 2Q, with monthly exports up 0.4% to a fresh record and imports rising more modestly, KPMG Canada's Daniel Hyun says. Nominal trade figures continue to be heavily influenced by volatility in commodity prices, though real volumes of energy and metals exports remain robust, the economist notes. And he adds the most tariff-exposed sectors held up well in June, with strong growth in motor vehicle and parts exports and in steel and iron products. Aluminum exports contracted, but this was a reversal of strong May exports to European countries. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0753 ET - Following Johnson Matthey's completed sale of Catalyst Technologies, the chemicals group now has greater agency over its future, Jefferies' Helena Xu and Marcus Dunford-Castro write. The completed 1.325 billion pound sale to Honeywell means the narrative around the London-listed group "now turns on Johnson Matthey's own delivery rather than deal risk or macro-led sentiment." Margin growth in the group's clean air division is key to the investment case for the company, the analysts say. Johnson Matthey's acquisition of Cormetech is a welcome strategic pivot, given it taps into the fast-expanding U.S. data center pipeline, they say. The analysts reinstate their coverage of the stock at buy. Johnson Matthey shares rise 5.9%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0523 ET - Aluminum Corp. of China seems well-positioned to benefit from tighter global supply of the base metal, given the alumina refiner's relatively stable power availability and raw material supply, says Fitch Ratings in a note. The Middle East conflict has intensified concerns over the metal's supply after Gulf smelters were struck, as the region accounts for around 8%-9% of aluminum production. Production curtailments in the region due to the Strait of Hormuz closure should keep aluminum prices elevated in 2027 even if the waterway reopens this year, it adds. Chalco is also likely to benefit from the Chinese government's support of parent company Chinalco, due to the state-owned enterprise's strategic importance to China's energy transition, power infrastructure and resource-security objectives, Fitch says. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2356 ET - The outlook for Fortescue's earnings--and, consequently, dividends--has weakened as the iron-ore miner faces structural cost pressures, says Morgan Stanley. Fortescue's FY 2027 C1 cost guidance of US$20.50-US$21.75/wet metric ton is roughly 7.8% above consensus midpoint and 13% above FY 2026's. Fortescue faces longer haul distances, likely increasing absolute diesel consumption, says MS. Iron Bridge also remains a drag on earnings, it says. The bank cuts its EPS estimates by 21% for FY 2027 and 18% for FY 2028. Its dividend forecast drops to 60.6 Australian cents a share in FY 2027--from nearly A$1.13/share in FY 2026--implying a 3.3% yield at a 65% payout. MS cuts its share-price target 9.9% to A$15.55 and reiterates an underweight rating. Shares are at A$17.99. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2332 ET - Promising drilling results from FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper-gold project seem to be having a diminishing impact on the company's share price, as investors move their focus from exploration to the potential development of a mine, say analysts at MA Moelis Australia. "Stocks can't trade on exploration excitement forever," they say. "When the market is wholly convinced there is a real project, eyeballs start to turn towards the detail around delivery." MA thinks there's a risk the market will be underwhelmed by a maiden study on the project, which is likely to be limited by an initial 1.8-million-metric-ton processing rate. It downgrades its rating on the stock to hold from buy and cuts its share-price target to A$1.90 a share from A$2.30. Shares are down 7.0% at A$1.73. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2304 ET - Iron ore prices are volatile early Tuesday while analysts are expecting further downside pressure from weak fundamentals. Global iron-ore shipments remain elevated, leading to a continued buildup in port inventories, Everbright Futures say in a note. On the demand side, hot metal output has declined for consecutive weeks, while steelmakers' profitability has deteriorated, prompting mills to take a cautious approach to raw material purchases, they add. The combination of rising supply and weaker demand has kept port inventories high and weakened cost support for prices, they say. The most actively traded September iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at CNY702.5 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

2242 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. However, CPO futures could trade rangebound with a downside bias after President Trump urged Iran to sign a peace agreement, PhillipCapital says in a note. Easing geopolitical risks reduces the risk premium in crude oil, a key driver of palm oil prices, as biofuel demand tends to weaken when energy prices decline. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is up 28 ringgit at 4,657 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2200 ET - Catalyst Metals' recent hedging could be a sign that the gold miner is preparing to approve a mill expansion, says UBS analyst Al Harvey. Catalyst last month said it entered into gold forward contracts of 30,000 ounces at 6,075 Australian dollars per ounce. That "may be part of risk management for an upcoming (yet modest) investment cycle, and bolsters our confidence that FID [a final investment decision] may be just around the corner," Harvey says. Catalyst is expected to provide FY27 guidance and an updated 10-year outlook in September. UBS forecasts FY27 production of 132,000 oz at a cost of A$3,066/oz. The bank keeps a buy rating and A$9.00/share target on the stock. Shares are up 0.2% at A$5.77. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2142 ET - Press Metal Aluminium's acquisition of a controlling stake in PMB Technology could strengthen its downstream business by leveraging sustainable energy supply, RHB IB analyst Iftaar Hakim Rusli says in a note. The 465 million ringgit stake acquisition will raise Press Metal's stake in PMB Technology to 58.8%, making it a subsidiary. The deal will allow Press Metal to pivot PMB Technology's operations toward higher-margin silicon-aluminum alloy products used in electric vehicles and industrial applications, he says. While RHB is positive on the deal's near-to-medium-term strategy, it cautions that future losses at PMB Technology will be consolidated into Press Metal's earnings, although the impact will likely be less than 2% of 2026-2028 earnings. RHB maintains its buy rating on Press Metal, keeps target price at 9.80 ringgit. Shares are 0.1% lower at 7.94 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2133 ET - There are encouraging signs that Coronado Global Resources' reset is delivering a better operational performance, says UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw. However, consistency is now required to make the risk-reward more attractive, he says. "Liquidity risk has reduced after the quarter, but the balance sheet remains sensitive to met coal prices, operational disruption and working-capital absorption," says Shaw. UBS has a neutral rating and A$0.21/share target on Coronado. Shares are down 1.4% at roughly A$0.17. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1931 ET - West African Resources is the cheapest ASX-listed gold stock when measured by its cash flow yield, says Euroz Hartleys. It estimates a cash flow yield of 28.5% for FY26. This is after West African Resources banked A$830 million during the year, as a result of the steady ramp up of its Kiaka mine in Burkina Faso. "Question now is whether they can return this to shareholders," says analyst Michael Scantlebury. West African Resources ended Monday at A$2.88. Its stock is down some 26% since its peak in January, amid a broad pullback in the gold price. Euroz Hartleys notes 2Q gold prices denominated in U.S. dollars and Australian dollars dropped on-quarter by the largest amount since 1Q of 2021. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

Ramelius Resources looks very cheap for a company that's going to generate A$1 billion of operating cash flow annually from FY28, says Euroz Hartleys. Investors have been leery about Ramelius's near-term capex, likely totaling some A$400 million in FY27. Output is forecast at 215,000 oz in FY27, up from 192,000 oz in FY26. Analyst Michael Scantlebury thinks the market should start to focus on Ramelius's cash flow from FY28. Ramelius forecasts A$410 million in dividends in FY29, representing a dividend yield of 6.7%. That's more than double the highest average yield of a gold stock. "We believe that the company will look to increase their share buyback by at least A$100 million (in the short term)," Ord Minnett says.